The Monthly Strength Pattern $$

CNBC mentioned how strong the first trading day of the month has been recently. It's been up six months in a row and thirteen of the last fifteen. It looks to tack on another win today.

I read somewhere that for the past year or so, all of the market gains could have been had by investing only on the first of the month, and being out of the market the rest of the month.

Norm Fosback identified the monthly strength period and holiday trading patterns. I wrote about the Seasonal Timing System trading patterns at the link.

As the saying goes, "You can learn a lot from history."

Norm! Seasonal Timing System

Just a reminder of another seasonal timing strategy from Norman Fosback.  I don't know if he's updated it on his website lately, but here is my understanding of it.

End of Month

• Always own equities on the last trading day of each month and first four trading days of each month (the “month-end” period).
• If the next-to-last trading day of the month is anything other than the first trading session of the week, hold equities on that day, too. In other words, own equities on both of the last two trading days of the month except when the next-to-last trading day of the month is the first trading day of the week.
• Also hold equities on the fifth trading day of the month, unless that fifth day is the first day of the week.

Market Holidays

• Own equities on the two trading days before each holiday closing (the “pre-holiday” period).
• However, do not own equities on the second day before a holiday closing if that day happens also to be the first trading day of the week.
• Continue to own equities on the first day after a market holiday closing if that day is also the last trading day of the week. Making Seasonality Even Better Over the years, Monday has been a poor day to be invested in the stock market.

Mark Hulbert at CBS Marketwatch last wrote about Fosback's system in November.  Of course, who knows how it will work out this month or going forward. But it's out there. Something to distract us from the Swine Flu. 

Weekend (and Roselyn Sanchez!)

• Hey you.  It's the weekend.  I know you're all iTired right about now as the iPhone release yesterday seemed to grab every headline and even push Paris Hilton off the front page for at least a few minutes.  The stock market didn't seem to know what direction to go in at the end of quarter, either.  So lets calm down and breathe deeply.  Lets divert our attention for at least a second to Maxim's #1 girl, Roselyn Sanchez. 
• Tick-tock. 
• Interesting stories out today on the iPhone.  From an investing angle we have Financial Sense talking about an investor's dilemma.  Kind of a "on the one hand" vs. "on the other hand" kind of article.  (Or point-counterpoint: "Jane, you ignorant slut!") I don't see a lot of interest in the iPhone from my friends and others around me just yet.  I think there's a wait and see attitude.  The stock nuts among them do think that this will launch Apple to the moon.  Just anecdotal stuff.
• DK notes a serious threat to the iPhone already! 
• We're heading on the down slope of 2007.  How'd you do in the first half?  I'm fairly risk averse at this point and thinking that a summer correction will give me a chance to get more aggressive and sprint towards the finish line.  May or may not work out that way.  But patience is an old friend of mine.  Continuing with lower beta holdings, cash, and a few mo-mo names.  Nothing much changing there for now.  I don't have my stats at the ready yet.
• The Fly looks like he's cruising at about 30% YTD.  Whoa, Nellie.
• The seasonal investing patter by Norm Fosback would have you in the market the two days prior to a market holiday.   In addition to being fully invested the last two days of the month and the first five of the following month.  (Otherwise, 100% cash).  Some crossover there the next two trading days.   We'll see how it plays out.  I suppose the thought is that the monthly money flow from 401(k) plans and the like help boost the market month-end and early month, while shorts may want to cover pre-holiday.  Something like that.  I  haven't backtested that idea, but Mark Hulbert keeps track.
• Michelle succumbed to the beast and bought 2 iPhones.  But here's a nice note to that:  I’m #20 in line and plan to buy two IPhones. The second one will be auctioned off via a blind auction with all proceeds going to a recognized charity. 
• Reading Adam Warner's Randoms from yesterday, just reminded me that I used to have the Tusk drum beat going through my mind constantly.  And now do again.  Gwen Stefani's "Wind it Up" removed it temporarily, so I might try that when I hit the weight room.  Adam links to an article by Howard Lindzon on APPL stock on the iPhone launch.   
• Is Barry Ritholtz trying to shove Paris Hilton back to the front page with The Paris Hilton Trading System?  (Actually, BR links to David Linton's site which is a pay site.  David, this is the internet.  It's the only place where Marxism works.  Everything should be free to the people!)
• I haven't played the Wii much the past couple of weeks.  It's one of those things that once you start at it, 4 hours go by in a blink.  I played a quick game of tennis on the Wii this morning and am inching up to the "Pro" rank.  A bit of fun, though.
• Now, back to Roselyn Sanchez (naked, nude, topless, smoking, stripping, without a trace, rush hour, Rosalyn).  Roselyn is cast in Rush Hour 3.  She's from Puerto Rico.  She seems comfortable in her skin as you can see in the Maxim interview.  Interesting read on how she came to be where she is.  Not a big party girl, but maybe that is a bit refreshing these days.  As a friend says, "Clean as a box of Tide."