In discussing the "top of the trading range," I wanted to add that the $NDX is actually above resistance now. That isn't unusual, as the NDX has a higher beta and more volatility than the broad market. So I would think that the likelihood of the NDX crossing resistance (or support) by a few points isn't that unusual. We sometimes see this in the $SPY or Dow, too.
But I want to add that even though I believe the summer trading range isn't over, the market looks good. From a technical standpoint, it certainly looks like the path of least resistance is higher.
The market is forward looking, right? While we saw the market gyrate on Greece, Europe, bad jobs reports, US Debt Ceiling headlines, and state, city and county budget issues, what really matters going forward is the US economy. And earnings have been good. The lines at restaurants are long.
I don't want to make it sound like I'm playing both sides here. You know, no matter what happens I could point back to this post and say that I CALLED IT! So, I'm going to remain in the lower beta stuff, some cash, and the oil for now.
If the economy is rebounding, then oil prices are heading up...
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Saturday Morning Resistance Chit Chat
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