Buy Signal: It's Dead, Jim

Just last week, I mentioned the follow-through day buy signal. It died yesterday with the new lows set in the market. Whipsaw for those chasing that one.

In addition, last week Gary Kaltbaum indicated on his radio show that he had taken a position in the market. Later he revealed that it was just a 10% position in a market index. He closed that position yesterday.

I remain long and riding down the bear market. Woot. I don't think now is the time to initiate sales. But it sure feels dire.

Buy Signals: IBD, Gary Kaltbaum, Warren Buffett

• Yesterday was a follow-through day on the DOW and Nasdaq. Saddle up!
• Gary Kaltbaum gives a buy signal.  "I bought into the market today for the first time in eons," Gary Kaltbaum of Kaltbaum & Associates, who had been in all cash, wrote in a note to clients.
• Kaltbaum's radio show for 10/16.  Thinks it's just a bear market rally, maybe lasting up to 8 weeks.  Sentiment is the worst he's ever seen, gloom and doom, nothing but bad news in the headlines, follow-through day on the DOW and Nasdaq, etc.  Listen to the first 10 minutes for his reasons.  Later in the show he says that he thinks it's probably just a bear market rally.
• Warren Buffett:  I'm buying stocks.  "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," said Buffett. "And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."

Bonus "on the other hand" Coverage!

On the one hand with bonus "on the other hand" coverage with Gary Kaltbaum! 

I realize that in order to be the most successful stock guru, one has to seemlessly play both bull and bear positions, in order to "be right" down the road.  I need to practice it myself.

Lets start with the bull comments:

Since the market's follow through day, the market continues to act constructively off its recent lows as up days have been on heavier volume while down days have been on light volume. One also has to like that leadership is indeed starting to show up.

Bonus "on the other hand" coverage:

Does the recent action mean things will be better in a few months? Maybe- just remember in bear markets, intermediate-term rallies do occur. I remember several during the 2000-2003 carnage. But the bottom line is that I do not look past my headlights... and that is the evidence that is NOW at hand... not the evidence that may show up later.

Down the road GK will be able to claim that "This is exactly what I was talking about," no matter what happens.  Pretty darn cool, huh? Now he is on the hook for at least an intermediate-term rally, but here on April 7th we've already had a decent move off the correction lows.

The Gary Kaltbaum Express

I don't want to pick on Gary Kaltbaum too much this week. He had some sort of "episode" on tuesday and was in the hospital for two days undergoing tests.  The good news is that he's okay, and the tests were negative.  He mentioned on the radio that he may have had a Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) (mini-stroke) or severe migraines that caused his problems.  Thoughts and prayers are with you, GK.  But that being said, he mentioned on his show Thursday that he "was no longer bearish" as of Monday.  So, of course I went to his Trading Markets column.

Monday 3/31 "Why am I worried?":  I am just not seeing the signs that make up a new bull market. When a new bull market starts, you should start seeing great set-ups and strong breakouts. We are seeing none of this. ... Maybe the bottom is in...and maybe the market just needs time to repair itself. I have no bias. Just not feeling it!

 

 

Thursday 4/3/ "The real reason stocks are diving":  The market continues to hold the lows, and is slowly building off those lows in spite of more bad economic news. This is actually a good thing. I'm just taking things one day at a time... not trying to get too far ahead in my thoughts. This has been a brutally tough market and I think it remains a tough proposition even if we head higher. Based on the follow-through day on Tuesday, I have been investing quite a bit.

I'm a daily listener to GK's show on my walks and bike rides.  I *think* his timing system is basically following IBD's trend calls.