The market giving some back this morning. Getting the blame is the lower-than-expected ISM number. It game in at 44, rather than the expected 45. Good news? Hey, the private sector only lost 532K jobs in May! Wow, that's fantastic! And if we had only lost 531K jobs, maybe the market would be in the green...
I've been thinking about getting the new Kindle DX. It's the larger-sized Kindle coming out June 10th. But then I read about the competition coming (like Google, like an Apple tablet, etc), and I think, why be too early in this market? Prices will come down with competition. Although, I did read that some newspapers will offer big discounts on the Kindle DX with a 12-month subscription to the newspaper. So... We'll see if I get the impulse to go with the Kindle DX. Heck, Amazon is the 800-lb. gorilla in the e-book market.
Why not get both a Kindle DX and an Apple Tablet! LOL. We'll know more about Apple's plans next week, eh?
Orange Punch's Mark Landsbaum says, "Just thinking out loud here, but what are the ramifications of the government owning big chunks of competing car companies, like the controlling interest the feds now have in General Motors and the lesser share they hold of Chrysler stock? How’s that work?" Clever column!
So we have a negative MACD divergence on this recent bounce over 900 on the SP500. Volume is higher on down days. Oh, and a big reversal today after the market was up.
So you know. It'll all be obvious in hindsight, and predicting the future is a tough gig, but it looks like the market wants to stop going up. The signs are there.
It's kind of funny how the news reports the market. Just two weeks ago, the market was going up despite the bad news. The news was all priced in and the market was looking forward to a growing economy. Last week, the bad news was driving the market down, and the market was looking forward to a double-dip recession. This week? The bad news is still coming in, but the market was up, then listless, then down.
Since the news has remained consistantly bad, yet the market has been all over the place, it must be something else driving market prices. Global warming? Tim Geithner speaking engagements? The return of Grace Park in The Cleaner? (Well, the latter isn't until Summer, but the market does look to the future...)
Life at the Fun Factory has been tapping all my energy the last week or so, that's why "light" on the blogging. It happens. And I haven't been out reading the others (see links in the sidebar) lately. Still getting in the workout afterhours, but then just melting into the sofa. It'll change. And I'm pretty glad that the daylight is lasting until way after 8pm here. That at least makes it feel like there is some time after work to do something.
Another down day for the market, but on relatively light volume. Everyday counts, and now we've had two significant days in a row of selling that brings the SP500 just below the 50dma. Hopefully, this will act as support. For those looking for a pullback to get in, maybe this is it. With stops, of course. Could be back down to the lows. But we're at the 50dma so worth watching closely here.
The easy blame goes to President Obama rejects the automakers plans, as GM and Chrysler may face bankruptcy. I doubt it, as I can't see Obama letting the bankruptcy courts throw out the union contracts. But what strange negotiating tactics to say that Chrysler has a 30-day deadline to work out a deal Fiat. Doesn't that put Fiat in the driver's seat in the negotiating game? Fiat can wait it out, try to get the best deal, or let it go bankrupt and try to swoop in on assets. What say you?
Still following Natural Gas, via UNG. Just a feeling on this whenever natural gas gets below $4, it's going to bounce. Oh, 5 reasons Natural Gas is going to bounce. Just for reading, that's all.
Darn, Louisville. My 5-1 ticket is dead, Jim.
Battlestar Galactica over? No. Battlestar Galactica: The Plan coming this Fall. Cool. Although, if they say it was all Bobby Ewing's (or Bob Newhart's) dream, I'm going crazy.
Top 10 Battlestar Galactica WTFs. LOL. Yeah, the Starbuck thing was really stupid. I'm talking Triple-O Stooopid. The whole show was tough to watch this last season, and it wrapped-up oddly. JMHO, of course.
A few days in to the new era of Hope and Change, and President Barack Obama (not pictured) is running into some opposition not just from the Republicans, but from Nancy Pelosi (also not pictured) and other leading Democrats. President Obama used today's radio address to stress the need for "unprecedented action."
Am I Grace Park's biggest fan? I've been watching the Canadian TV series The Border. But only starting from Season 2, Episode 7. That's when Agent Liz Carver (Grace Park) joined the cast. I've only made it through that one so far. Not horrible. Maybe I'll watch the the first season and S2E1-6.
I'm long the market. I think we're near "the bottom." Of course, the transports are worrisome, no? But I continue to believe that it's not over for the US. I believe that the low interest rates and stimulus will work to stimulate economic growth. But right now, no one seems to have faith.
The president pleaded for urgent action, saying, "if we do not act boldly and swiftly, a bad situation could become dramatically worse." Obama's remarks came as he is lobbying for a quick congressional passage of a $825 billion dollar stimulus package to pump up the economy. That's another nearly trillion on the deficit, by the way. I suppose he's trying to gain public opinion his way to give him the green light to spend like crazy.
And now, after 8 years of silence, the Republicans are finaly trying to act like spendthrifts. Right. They didn't do any better on their watch. I can't see how anyone can take them too seriously when it comes to balancing the budget.
The Aftermath of Financial Crisis, from Barry Ritholtz. A link and excerpts from the Barron's column this weekend, and also links to Barry's previous comments. Worth a peruse.
I do wish President Obama well, but I am already suffering from Obama Fatigue. Maybe it was the long campaign season. But his speaking style is really getting to me. You know what I mean, it's the TV-preacher thing. I keep expecting to hear, after every uplifting sentence, "Can I get an amen?" Remember Arsenio Hall's stand-up TV preacher bit? Like that!
It always seems like *this* will be the week work lets up a bit and I'll have a few more minutes to blog. Still hasn't happened. Work is crazy. Nornally the holidays would be slow, followed by the big bang in January. But the Fun Factory was hectic over the holidays and continues to be so. Hectic.
Bookmark this one for future reference. Econobrowser has a concise summary of macro performance under the Presidents. Cool chart. I like charts. Noice.
There's a Grace Park video on Youtube where she's being interviewed about her role in The Border. What's funny is when she's asked about her prep work for her role as Liz Carver. She had to dig deep down to come up with something, I thought she might blurt out, "No. Not really. No prep work whatsoever. Want to go grab coffee?" Link.
Listened to Gary Kaltbaum's radio show last night while working out. He noted that GE is now yielding about 10%-ish. They spend about $12 billion on their dividend. So, they could cut that to 5% and save the company $6 billion. Would they do it? Seems to me that we are in an era of shrinking dividends.
Richard at Move the Markets has an interesting one up on DJIA Distortion. Well, the Dow and SP500 are market-cap weighted.
And I'll take you out with a Grace Park vid. Can I get an amen?
McCain and Obama tangle over the Wall Street crisis.
McCain says that he's no expert on the economy, and that while he was a POW in Vietnam, he had to issue his stock market trades by tapping Morse code on the walls of his cell.
Obama says that he has no specific plan at this time and won't try to seek political gain from the crisis, but as community organizer he often times had to come up with creative funding ideas when money ran short. "Why not have a bikini car wash? Or sell some candy bars for $1?"
Who can forget Grace Park's role as "Asian Dancer" in the 2000 movie "Romeo Must Die?" Or as "Female Breeding X5" in Jessica Alba's Dark Angel TV show?
Lots of blame for the financial crisis. How far back does it go? Jimmy Carter? Bill Clinton? And did George Bush try to increase regulation in 2003? Read on....
For Grace Park, it must be tough being of Korean heritage, and playing every Asian role under the sun except for Korean. I wonder what a Japanese actress thinks when a Korean actress gets cast as a Japanese character? Just asking. Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?
The market has had just an amazingly volatile week. Welcome to the People's Republic of America. Basically, it looks as if the government is going to bail out "financial companies gone wild" with something near $500B to $1T of YOUR cash. I'd think that this will hamper the government's ability to spend much money on new programs in the years ahead.
But the stock market was up huge again. If one is waiting for an IBD confirmation day 4-10 days after Thursday's gains, it might be a little frustrating on the sidelines.
So, at 0-2, all of my Fantasy Football running backs are questionable this weekend with gimpy hamstrings and toes. Good grief. First Tom Brady goes down. Then my backup (Houston's Matt Shaub) has a Hurricane Bye Week and I'm stuck with Miami's Chad Pennington from the waiver wires. (Might as well just not even start a QB). It's as if my fantasy team needs a Fed bailout. Just horrible.
Yes, that is Grace Park from The Cleaner and Battlestar Galactica. I haven't watched The Cleaner, but now that I know, I went to the DirecTV website and remotely programmed my DVR to pick it up. Why not? It has to be better than So You Think You Can Dance.
Anyways, market selling off a bit late in the day from earlier gains. Normally, I'd expect the week after an options run to be a little weak. And next week we will get the end-of-month boost from 401(k) money. That's assuming folks are sticking with their dollar cost averaging. Maybe folks have given up after 10 years of low stock returns.
You know, I was thinking about how the past 10 years has averaged just over 3% annualized. Compare that to the period from 1982-1999 where the average was much higher. When were folks much more excited about stocks? At the tail end of the 1990's, as the days of double-digit average gains were going away. Meanwhile, now that we have a decade of 3% gains in, folks aren't too excited about stocks.
Overall, the market may average around 8-10%. But does it ever return 8-10% over an intermediate stretch of time? Or, does the market have periods of 17% gains followed by periods of 3% gains? If investors are excited or gloomy late in the cycles, wrong emotion at the wrong time, is it any wonder that people consistantly underpeform buying and holding the index?
Anyways, Grace Park plays Akani Cuesta in The Cleaner. Want a video?
