Stocks and Election Thoughts and Elon Musk

• Since I last blogged, the stock market went into a bear market. It remains stuck! Every rally attempt has been beaten down by the bears, chief among them Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. He’s been on a relentless interest rate hike to tame the beast of inflation.
• “Too much money chasing too few goods.” All the covid stimulus, including the stimulus checks, eviction moratoriums, halting student debt repayments, rates near 0%, and government deficit spending and various bills (infrastructure, “inflation reduction act”), juiced spending and inflated asset prices. Meanwhile, the pandemic itself has led to economic shutdowns and supply chain shortages around the globe. And did I mention a war in Europe? Russia invading Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions has driven up the costs of oil and natural gas, while putting pressure on things like fertilizer, wheat, and other things.
• As rates go up, stock market valuations have come down. In addition, corporate earnings reports have been lackluster and future guidance has been poor. We are also seeing companies announce hiring freezes and layoffs. This could accelerate going forward.
• California’s tax revenues are coming in light! To be expected, as California receives a lot of tax revenue from a small number of people and companies, and if earnings are down and capital gains are non-existent, tax revenues will fall short.  So much for the budget surplus of yesteryear!

My thoughts on it all: I’m 100% invested and have ridden the bear market down. I continue to add to positions and reallocate to stocks and sectors that I think will do well going forward. I’m not chasing the hot stocks and sectors that have outperformed during the bear market. I’m more interested in tech and growth that will outperform once the bear market ends and the new bull market unfolds. Patience… Patience… Patience…

• Elon Musk takes over Twitter, and immediately announces layoffs and upcoming changes to the platform. There are a lot of “hot takes” on how this is going and how this will play out. My hot take is that he makes a lot of changes, the changes are mostly well-received over time, and he takes Twitter public again as a hot IPO. Or maybe I’m just borrowing that hot take from something I read on Twitter! 
• NFL Sunday! Another day to remind me that my fantasy football team is a bunch of hits and mostly misses week to week! But at least the Dolphins have a fun offense to watch again.
• Election hot take: I don’t know. Generic polls seem mostly useless, as most House districts are gerrymandered. Maybe the polls have more value in statewide elections. Polls seem close for the Senate. GOP might get the House. I think the GOP does well in local races that are out of the national spotlight. 
• The Senate races are going to be close and contested. I’m not an election denier or believe cheating was found in 2020. But, I’m not sure our election systems aren’t designed to allow cheating by both sides. I just don’t know how they would do it, or do do it. We have so many different voting systems around the 50 states, different rules and laws, precincts, polling locations, drop boxes and mail-in ballots. We don’t have voter ID. Signature validation software is sketchy. Again, I don’t think any cheating was found in 2020. 

Is Facebook a Dying Breed? And Twitter?

Are Facebook and Twitter dying breeds?  $FB  $TWTR 

There has been a few stories in the news lately about how teens are abandoning Facebook.  I think it was CNBC that interviewed a 13 year old girl who said she only checked Facebook when she was bored and that none of her friends used FB, but instead used this, that and the other social networking sites.  The linked to article and video wonder if Facebook may face the same fate as MySpace.  Remember that site?  It used to be all the rage!

I think Facebook is entrenched as the social site to use.  It has time and members, and we’re all familiar with the interfaces.  It’s just the online social standard at this point.  A new site has to build up usability and users.  And that’s difficult to do when they have to compete with Facebook, that has 728 million daily users.

Heck, this blog gets a few hundred hits a day and the audioboos/podcasts get 25 to over 1000 listens, based on topic.

Likewise, I think Twitter is the defacto newsfeed standard.  Whenever something is going on live, we turn to Twitter for instant news.  How that gets monetized will be the question.

Late Night Signals

• Tonight's Black Box Jr. scans reveals a buy signal on IEO, the iShares US Oil & Gas ETF.  I will buy (paper trade) this tomorrow for the Black Box Jr. portfolio.  It'll be interesting to see if this trade is a whipsaw, a bear bounce, or the sign of higher oil prices coming.
• A fresh sell signal on the Emerging Markets ETF, EEM.  I won't short in the Black Box Jr. portfolio - no shorting there.  The last buy signal for EEM resulted in about an 8% loss.
• Near a sell signal... XLF. The financial ETF isn't quite there, but looking ugly.
• The Long-Short portfolio remains long QQQQ.  It is in overbought territory, but no sell signal at this time.  Again, since it was on a buy when I started this, I haven't made a paper trade.  When a sell signal comes, I would anticipate a buy signal for the inverse NDX, the PSQ ETF.
• That's it for that.  Never a recommendation.  Just paper trading.  In the real world with real dollars, I remain 100% long equities.
• The US woman's volleyball team is amazing.  Watched a bunch tonight.  I'm watching the Olympics via DVR.  That way, I can watch about 4 hours of televised content in about 23 minutes.  Once one fast-forwards through commercials, interviews, and other fluff, the events don't take up much time.
• Barack Obama's tax plan via Greg Mankiw.  FWIW.
• From Barry Ritholtz, Alan Greenspan calls a housing bottom.
• I find myself using Twitter this time more than last time.  Nice mobile tool set makes it easy to Tweet on the go.

Long-Short Model Update (and more!)

• The Long-Short model still is on a buy on the QQQQ, but it is nearing overbought territory.  Still on the sell for GLD, IEO, and USO.  IEO and USO are especially oversold here, so I'd imagine a bounce is coming but will keep an eye on the model.
• I am still only "paper trading" this model.  Virtual trading, that's all.  In real life, I remain 100% long.  None of this is a recommendation, of course.
• Thinking about the fall in oil and the rally in stocks, I wonder if the speculative money that was in oil is looking for something else to speculate in?  Real estate isn't there yet with high inventory numbers.  Commodities have crashed.  Maybe the speculative dollars are coming back into stocks.  Just a thought.
• You can follow me on Twitter.  Oh, and the blog, too.
• In Beijing, Michael Phelps set a record in the 400-meter.  Woot!
• Market sentiment update from Headline Charts.  Look at the bull-bear ratio on the Investors Intelligence survey.  Holy smokes.  (No smoking picture today, the air in Beijing is polluted enough).
• The Barack Obama do it yourself Hawaiian certificate of live birth (COLB) kit!  Sure to be a hit this holiday season!
• There is a huge net storm over Barack Obama's birth certificate, whether or not it is a fake, and if he's eligible to run for President or not.  Or if he's the antichrist.  LOL. 
• From Mish, Marc Faber is bullish on the US Dollar, and bearish on commodities.  And there's a video!
• The NFL Network is televising pre-season games back-to-back-to-back all weekend long!
• Daily Speculations has Mr. Market is the Trickster!
• Buy on the Dip with Apple store happenings in La Jolla.  Long lines for the iPhone.  SOLD OUT.
• I'm not checking NFL scores.  I'm recording some of the pre-season games on the DVR.  Something to do tomorrow.  LOL.
• Barry Ritholtz on the Least Trustworthy CEO on Wall Street.
• Cool mobile Twitter tools for a Windows Mobile phone?  Twit Today lets you "tweet" from the Today screen without launching an application.  Very nice.  Twitterfeed logs your blog entries on Twitter via your RSS feed.  Sweet.  And Tiny Twitter is an application that lets you follow updates, post your own, etc.  Noice!

Hump Day Again?

• Market started off a little rocky, but has picked up some buyers as we cruise along. Looks like tech is leading here today.
• I remain 100% long.  Of course, it's now August and many are expecting some late-Summer swoon that leads to some sort of bear market capitulation.  You have to wonder, though.  So many folks seem to be on that page, that if the market wanted to play them for the fools, it'd keep going up!
• Who is hoping California raises taxes to deal with the $17B budget deficit?  Nevada!  “(Chuck) Alvey runs the Economic Development Authority of western Nevada, which recruits businesses to the Reno area, and he’s glad to talk about Nevada’s low-tax climate. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposal to tack an extra penny on California’s sales tax could offer him another selling point.
• Corn prices falling!  Good corn-growin' weather and a stronger dollar, they say.
• Looking for an easy way to Twitter from your Windows Mobile phone?  There are lots of applications out there that do both sending and receiving of data, but that can suck your phone battery dry!  Twit Today puts a text box on your Today menu.  No application to load!  You just type in what you want to say, and click OK!  Easy!