John McCain VP Candidates

Well, we're steamrolling right through the Democratic Convention, and since we know it's all about raising taxes on the rich, who needs to watch?  Instead, lets take a peak at who John McCain may select as his Vice Presidential candidate.  After extensive research via the web and TV Guide, I've narrowed it down to four likely candidates.

1. Mitt Romney, (Not pictured), former Governor and Republican Presidential candidate.
2. Tim Pawlenty (Not pictured), current Governor.
3. Colin Powell (Not pictured), former Secretary of State.
4. Jamie Chung, from MTV's Real World San Diego and also starring as "Samurai Girl" in this weekend's ABC Family mini-series.

I think it's a no brainer.  Jamie has almost as much political experience as Barack Obama, and has also just completed a crash-course in martial arts.  What says "change" like a VP candidate wielding a Samurai sword?  Everyone always talks about courting the Black or Hispanic vote.  What about the Asian-American vote?  Her selection as Vice President would be a political shocker, but that's why John McCain is known as "the Maverick."

Watch Fox News to see if a Secret Service detail was sent to Jamie's house.  That'd be the sign that McCain avoided the obvious picks.  Who would you rather spend the next two months with on the Straight Talk Express?  Again, a no brainer.

Meanwhile, the stock market TANKED today.  Why?  Are all the buyers in the Hamptons this week?  It does appear obvious that the move up off the lows was just another bull market rally in this long and grinding road.

To add insult to injury tonight, the new Long-Short timing model gave a sell on the QQQQ and a buy on the PSQ.  The Black Box Jr. gave a buy on GLD and a sell on EEM.  Stay tuned for tomorrow's paper-trading portfolio updates!  And with Real World money, I'm 100% long and feeling the pain.

I ended up in Reno over the weekend and made some football bets.   I usually take a flyer from each conference to win the Super Bowl.  A friend took the Giants at 38-1 last year, and this year she took the Saints and the Broncos.  I went with the Redskins and the Bills.  40-1 are mine.  LOL.  But, a good running game and a defense work wonders in the NFL.  I also took the Miami Dolphins over on 5.5 wins for the season. 

Late Night Signals

• Tonight's Black Box Jr. scans reveals a buy signal on IEO, the iShares US Oil & Gas ETF.  I will buy (paper trade) this tomorrow for the Black Box Jr. portfolio.  It'll be interesting to see if this trade is a whipsaw, a bear bounce, or the sign of higher oil prices coming.
• A fresh sell signal on the Emerging Markets ETF, EEM.  I won't short in the Black Box Jr. portfolio - no shorting there.  The last buy signal for EEM resulted in about an 8% loss.
• Near a sell signal... XLF. The financial ETF isn't quite there, but looking ugly.
• The Long-Short portfolio remains long QQQQ.  It is in overbought territory, but no sell signal at this time.  Again, since it was on a buy when I started this, I haven't made a paper trade.  When a sell signal comes, I would anticipate a buy signal for the inverse NDX, the PSQ ETF.
• That's it for that.  Never a recommendation.  Just paper trading.  In the real world with real dollars, I remain 100% long equities.
• The US woman's volleyball team is amazing.  Watched a bunch tonight.  I'm watching the Olympics via DVR.  That way, I can watch about 4 hours of televised content in about 23 minutes.  Once one fast-forwards through commercials, interviews, and other fluff, the events don't take up much time.
• Barack Obama's tax plan via Greg Mankiw.  FWIW.
• From Barry Ritholtz, Alan Greenspan calls a housing bottom.
• I find myself using Twitter this time more than last time.  Nice mobile tool set makes it easy to Tweet on the go.

Quick Wed Hit

Long-short model update... Buy signal on the IDU, everything else status quo. Buys on all stock indexes, sells on gold and oil.  Although oil appears to be extremely oversold and due for a rally. 

Market selling off this morning.  Why?  Retail sales are horrible.  Auto sales are horrible.  Well, gasoline has acted like a huge tax on consumers.  The other thing few ever mention, is that a few years ago auto companies had 0% financing.  The warning at the time was that this would steal from future auto sales.  Well...  That could be part of it. 

Meetings all day today.   Even over lunch.  I hate that.  My boss says, "It's the only time open on your calendar."  Okay, note to self:  Recurring meeting from 12-1pm at Subway.  Daily.

Long-Short Model Update (and more!)

• The Long-Short model still is on a buy on the QQQQ, but it is nearing overbought territory.  Still on the sell for GLD, IEO, and USO.  IEO and USO are especially oversold here, so I'd imagine a bounce is coming but will keep an eye on the model.
• I am still only "paper trading" this model.  Virtual trading, that's all.  In real life, I remain 100% long.  None of this is a recommendation, of course.
• Thinking about the fall in oil and the rally in stocks, I wonder if the speculative money that was in oil is looking for something else to speculate in?  Real estate isn't there yet with high inventory numbers.  Commodities have crashed.  Maybe the speculative dollars are coming back into stocks.  Just a thought.
• You can follow me on Twitter.  Oh, and the blog, too.
• In Beijing, Michael Phelps set a record in the 400-meter.  Woot!
• Market sentiment update from Headline Charts.  Look at the bull-bear ratio on the Investors Intelligence survey.  Holy smokes.  (No smoking picture today, the air in Beijing is polluted enough).
• The Barack Obama do it yourself Hawaiian certificate of live birth (COLB) kit!  Sure to be a hit this holiday season!
• There is a huge net storm over Barack Obama's birth certificate, whether or not it is a fake, and if he's eligible to run for President or not.  Or if he's the antichrist.  LOL. 
• From Mish, Marc Faber is bullish on the US Dollar, and bearish on commodities.  And there's a video!
• The NFL Network is televising pre-season games back-to-back-to-back all weekend long!
• Daily Speculations has Mr. Market is the Trickster!
• Buy on the Dip with Apple store happenings in La Jolla.  Long lines for the iPhone.  SOLD OUT.
• I'm not checking NFL scores.  I'm recording some of the pre-season games on the DVR.  Something to do tomorrow.  LOL.
• Barry Ritholtz on the Least Trustworthy CEO on Wall Street.
• Cool mobile Twitter tools for a Windows Mobile phone?  Twit Today lets you "tweet" from the Today screen without launching an application.  Very nice.  Twitterfeed logs your blog entries on Twitter via your RSS feed.  Sweet.  And Tiny Twitter is an application that lets you follow updates, post your own, etc.  Noice!

Black Box Jr. Portfolio Update

• "B" for buy, "S" for sell. It all makes perfect sense to have Brenda Song as the portfolio update girl.
• Last night (Monday) was the first afterhours scan for the Black Box Jr. market timing system.  I ran it on the total market of stocks that trade above $2 and above 100,000 trading volume.  It came up with 178 buys and 330 sells!  That's a bit much for me.  So, I'm confining the first buys to stocks I've had in my watch list, but will expand the list over time.  Maybe popular NDX stocks or something.  We'll see.
• The first buys are PM (Philip Morris International) and PGH (Pengrowth Energy Trust).  I've made the virtual PGH trade and will get in PM sometime today. 
• I think the PGH signal is an interesting one since it's been tanking as oil prices have gone down.  My initial gut-feeling reaction is skeptical on that one.  But we'll go with it.  I imagine if it continues down, there will be a quick sell signal from Black Box Jr.
• PM had a big move yesterday, and continues up as I type.  I always hate to chase stocks after a large percentage move, since it seems like "I've missed it!"  Of course, the reality is that my biggest winners have often come buying the big moves.
• Limiting stocks to roughly 4% of initial stake of $100,000. 
• Again, this is just virtual dollars, or online "paper trading."  None of the stocks listed are a recommendation to buy or sell.  I may or may not have actual positions in the stocks listed, and may change positions at any time. 
• Brenda Song was born in Carmichael, CA.  That is a suburb of sorts here in the Sacramento area. 
• Image lawsuit of Brenda featured in an LA escort ad.

Watch Muckdog Lose Virtual Dollars!

I've been refining the Black Box timing system I use to trade. I'm now going to virtual trade the system to get comfortable with it. I've created two portfolios over at Herdstreet. Herdstreet has the capability of embedding widgets to track the portfolio. Hopefully, the whole thing works well enough to have some fun with.

"Black Box Jr." will track a portfolio of individual stocks. Long or cash only, no shorting. This portfolio will start with $100,000 in cash. I anticipate building positions over time as the signals come in.

"Long Short" will track the trading of the the Nasdaq 100 and its inverse, via the QQQQ and PSQ. This portfolio will start with $10,000 in cash. The QQQQ are now on a buy signal, so I will start with the next signal generated.

I haven't tried Herdstreet, so this is all experimental. The site seems to be down right now, as a matter of fact. Anyways, I'll post the portfolio updates on days that trades are made, and at the end of the week to track progress. Posts will be tagged "portfolio" to make them easy to find down the road.

Disclaimor: None of the picks should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. I may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned.