Wednesday Thoughts

• I was going to write about yesterday's positive market, but I see today we're giving it back. So, nevermind.   LOL.
• One thing that did stick out yesterday, and throughout this rally, is the lack of leadership.  Hard to imagine that a new bull market is underway without leadership.  So that gets back to the idea that we probably will retest the lows. 
• Staying long. Playing around the edges.
• Is "Buy and Hold" dead?
• Blow-up doll sex bandit.  An Australian man broke into three adult shops, had sex with blow up dolls named "Jungle Jane" and then dumped his plastic conquests in a nearby alley, local media reported Wednesday.
• Have you noticed gasoline prices are rising again?  The sad news, is that this comes as SUV sales have surged with lower gas prices.   Fool me once, twice, all the time... Shame on me.  You'd think folks would have figured it out by now.
• Of course, oil will go up.  It's a limited resource.  Lets get moving on nuclear energy and natural gas vehicles.
• Pricing in a job apocalypse.

Dad's Stuff

Strangest thing. It is getting close to Dad's birthday, so he's been on my mind. Had a dream last night about him. Can't remember the particulars.

But today in the mail, I received a package from his wife. In it was my Dad's achievements. Things like birth and death certificates, high school and college diplomas, pictures of him in local newspapers as a kid, all his stuff from the Marines, and documents from his parents (my grandparents). Even a few of his school projects. Stuff like that.

So sifting through all of that has me in touch with my inner self. Such as it is.

Monday Randomosity

• New year, and new girlfriends for Hef. LOL.  These are the twins.  Yes, indeed.
• Check out the market internals from today.  More advancers than decliners.  Just saying.  We don't like to see the market go down, but if the majority of stocks are advancing even though the indexes aren't, is it horrible technically?
• Remember the last couple of years, I laughed at those worried about inflation. Even the Fed members who were yapping their mouths about inflation.  They were wrong.  Now, the Fed is really trying to grease the skids of this economy.  And Obama will do the same.  So is now the time to start anticipating an inflationary economy down the road?  Probably.  That's my guess.  May not show up for a bit, but these guys are trying to get this thing going again.
• Could be the next bubble is in Treasuries.  Anyone want to buy long-dated Treasuries here?  C'mon.  No way. 
• The folks who want to inject even more government regulation (”read interference”) into your life insist that the wheels have fallen off the economy because of too little government regulation over the past three decades. Wrong.  From Orange Punch.  Click the link to read the crazy numbers of regulations George Bush has added during his terms.
• Add a $175 tax per dairy cows to fight global warming?  Those alarmists have crazy covered!
• Where did you come from?  Where did you go?  Where did you come from, Cotton-eyed Joe?
• I've had my iPhone for about 2 months now.  I've added about 6-pages worth of apps.  The new-ness of it all has worn off, but I love this phone.  Can't imagine going back to the "old way."  I don't search blogs and the app store much these days, but did see that Craigslist has an app out now.

 

Monday Market Thoughts

• I suppose at this point, some folks are looking at the current rally and thinking that it looks familiar to the September 2002 bottom and subsequent rally. I believe that rally was about 20% or so, followed by a retest of the 2002 lows in March 2003.  (I mentioned this earlier, but I like to repeat myself.  LOL).
• So is that carved in the stones?  That's my best guess.  If this rally fades, then the lows of 2008 could be retested and that would complete the Deja Vu.
• I remain 100% long, but that doesn't mean I won't try to dance along the edges a bit with regards to beta.
• Have you put up your new 2009 calendar yet?  You could do worse than Kim Kardashian's all-new calendar for 2009.
• Are we finaly through with the Holiday Programming?  It's been about all I could handle.  Lets get back to our favorites.  Bring back Heroes and Lost.  Lets give Jack Baur a shot in 24.  Where'd we leave off in Life on Mars?  It's important!
• Here are the TV battles and schedules.
• President-elect Obama looks to move swiftly in passing an economic stimulus package once in the big chair.  The specifics are still lacking, but my guess is that it will be heavy in tax cuts for those who don't pay taxes and also building lots of roads and bridges. 
• Apple's ($AAPL) Steve Jobs stuggling with his hormones. Fortunately, after further testing, my doctors think they have found the cause -- a hormone imbalance that has been "robbing" me of the proteins my body needs to be healthy.  Stay tuned.  Sounds strange.
• Matt Smith takes over as Dr. Who in 2010.  So is he now "Dr. Who-elect?"
• How overbought is the market?

2009 Guru Predictions

Coming off a horrible 2008, the Gurus are hoping to make a comeback in 2009. In the real world, I'd hope that most of these folks would have some stops in mind in case these picks don't work. Of course, most folks don't trade that way in reality and "hope" that their losses will rebound and they can somehow get even. But that's not what these TV segments are about. These picks usually represent the stocks to buy for the calendar year.

Here are the stocks to own from the Fox Business Block gurus and closing prices on 12/31.

Bulls and Bears

• Gary B. Smith: Fannie Mae (FNM: $.76)
• Tobin Smith: Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR: $19.80)
• Pat Dorsey: WellPoint (WLP: $42.13)
• Eric Bolling: Google (GOOG: $307.65)

Cavuto

• Patricia Powell: 3M Co. (MMM: $57.54)
• Charles Payne: Apple (AAPL: $85.35)
• Adam Lashinsky: Walgreen (WAG: $24.67)
• Matt McCall: iShares High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG: $76.01)

Forbes on Fox

• Evelyn Rusli: URS Corp (URS: $40.77)
• Jack Gage: Energizer (ENR:$54.14)
• John Rutledge: Apple (AAPL: $85.35)
• Victoria Barret: salesforce.com (CRM: $32.01)

Cashin' In

• Jonathan Hoenig: Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index (JRE: $21.70)
• Wayne Rogers: Abraxis Bioscience (ABII: $65.92)
• Jonas Max Ferris: WADDELL AND REED FINANCIAL (WDR: $15.46)

My prediction?  I think that the policy of the Fed and stimulus spending from the Obama administration will lead to a rebound in the economy later this year or in 2010.  But that will start to show up in stocks in 2009, as the market starts to discount the future.  I think it's possible that we retest the 2008 lows once again, but that a new bull market will begin.  The first year gains from the bull market will be substantial, so I'm predicting a 20% rise in the SP500 in 2009.

2009 Starts Off

• Whether you like it or not, it's 2009! Happy New Year!  I  hope this finds you happy and healthy.  Oh, and also reading this on your portable device from the treadmill at the gym.  You haven't broken that "get in shape" New Year's resolution yet, have you?
• Yes, that is "Latika" (actress Freida Pinto) from Slumdog Millionaire.  Quite a good movie.
• The stock market rolls on and trading should be fairly light for a day in-between a holiday and a weekend.  The market up sharply while the financial networks are ever bullish and talking about the "January Effect."  Sharpest opening day since 2003, they say. 
• In March 2003, the market ended up retesting the September 2002 lows, and then beginning the amazing bull market and economic run to 2007.   There was an amazing stretch of GDP quarters running over 3% during that stretch.

 

How did 2008 Guru Picks Do?

At the beginning of 2008, I listed stock picks from the gurus on the Fox Business Block. Lets see how their "must own" stocks of 2008 did.

Bulls and Bears:

• Tobin Smith: Emcore (EMKR $15.30 to $1.30)
• Pat Dorsey: American Express (AXP $52.02 to $18.55)
• Gary B Smith: Bank Of America (BAC $41.26 to $14.08)
• Scott Bleier: Marteck Biosciences (MATK $29.58 to $30.31)
• Patricia Powell: Potash of Saskatchewan (POT $143.96 $73.22)

Cavuto:

• Gary Kaltbaum: Oracle (ORCL $22.58 to $17.73)
• Charles Payne: Washington Mutual (WM $13.61 to $0)
• Jill Schlesinger: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index (ADRE $55.04 to $27.31)
• Peter Schiff: streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD $82.46 to $86.52)

Cashin' In:

• Wayne Rogers: BE Aerospace (BEAV $52.90 to $7.69)
• Matt McCall: CNH Global (CNH $65.82 to $15.60)
• Jonas Max Ferris: Nakoma Absolute Return Fund (NARFX $23.06 to $22.06)
• Jonathan Hoenig: CurrencyShares Mexican Peso (FXM $91.98 to $73.81 )

There you go.  Peter Schiff wins with GLD, followed by Scott Bleier with MATK.  Nobody else finished in the green with their pick.  Do you think you should follow their must own stocks for 2009?

In Edit: It's only fair to list my prediction for 2008. Yikes.

I'm 100% long. The Presidential Election Year is normally a good one for stocks.  Years ending in 8 are usually good.  So despite today's fear and gloom slamming stocks, I think we're heading higher.  Buying opportunity!

My prediction?  SP500:  1675.   Continued slow growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and no recession.  Housing will continue to slide, but housing inventories will begin to come down as new construction continues to slow and people decide to just live in their homes and make their monthly payments.