Sunday Night Bernanke Bucks Randomosity

Stocks, NFL bets, Keith Olbermann, and lots of other stuff.

• Asian stocks up! China stocks rose, led by developers and automakers, amid speculation capital inflows will increase on U.S. quantitative easing and the central government will succeed in boosting domestic consumption.. In other words, a lot of that $600B in Bernanke Bucks will end up over there.
• I hit two 3-team parlays today. 6-1 each, can't complain. But if I had combined them on a 6-team parlay, I think that pays 40-1. Whoa. Only nail-biter was taking the Raiders. Phew.
• Oil prices move higher. Good news and bad news. The economy is improving and increasing demand, but Bernanke is reducing the value of the dollar. What really gets the credit for oil prices increasing? Oh, and who gets hit here? Consumers!
• Keith Olbermann back on MSNBC Tuesday. This ends the wild speculation that Olbie will be taking over the Dallas Cowboys head coaching job. Once Wade is fired.
• Wasn't it ridiculous how often Wade Phillips was fired by NBC tonight? Yes, the Cowboys suck. But good grief.
• If the voters in Alaska want Murkowski, they should get Murkowski. Enough of this foolishness.

#26: Election Review, Tea Party Energizes GOP Base, Ben Bernanke Throws Kitchen Sink (and $600B) at Economy, Gold-Inflation-Etc, Stock Market Election Year Pattern Holds!

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Contrarian Indicators, Part 1

With the 2010 election in the rear-view mirror, here was a glaring contrarian indicator.

Yes, they managed to do it again.

Keep this in mind when things look their gloomiest or brightest. Keep your seatbelt on!

#25: Election Results,Tea Party,George Bush,Tax Cuts,Randy Moss

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November in the Stock Market

The market has had a great September and October. But what about November? Mark Hulbert looks at The big mo:

The question for investors now is: Does the stock market’s impressive gain over the last two months tell us anything about what November is likely to have in store?

Fortunately, yes: There is some modest statistical evidence that a strong September-October combination increases the odds of a good November as well.

Here’s the data, based upon all September-October returns for the Dow over the last 114 years. Consider first those occasions since the late 1800s when these two months produced a gain; in November of those years, the Dow gained 1.2%.

Overbought? Yes. Is the momentum likely to continue? Yes.  But, as like Hulbert says, the number is an average and thus there are numbers above and below the actual average rate.

***

Yes, still up watching election coverage.  The media has called the CA Senate race for Boxer, but with 22% of polls reporting, Fiorina is up by a handful. I dunno. Must be some Boxer Wave coming that’s not showing up in the numbers.

Election Night

Watching election coverage on Fox.  I suppose all news junkies are at this point.  I got take out from Panda Express and settled in with a large iced tea for the evening.

I think the election went as expected.  Maybe a few races here or there went one way or another unexpectedly, but the results are that the Republicans now run the House of Representatives and the Democrats have a smaller majority in the Senate.  The GOP also picked up some governorships and some seats in statehouses around the country.

I’ll be up for a few following Twitter and other blogs, with Fox News on in the background.

The stock market rallied nicely today.  Now we will see if tomorrow is a sell the news day, or if we go up because things went as expected with no major surprises.  I remain 100% long.  I am somewhat worried of a correction coming, but the election year pattern seems to be playing out.

Back from Las Vegas Thoughts

Well, I’ve been in Las Vegas the past few days.  Lets just say that I donated a little to the Nevada economy.  Not too much thanks to some sports picks and a few late slot hits.

It was pretty crazy for Halloween.  Lot of folks dressed up both Saturday and Sunday.  For all the scary costumes, there were some very clever ones. One guy was dressed up as Bob’s Big Boy (not pictured).  That was my favorite, maybe because of sentimental reasons.  As a kid, my dad was paid once a month.  And once a month, we went to Bob’s Big Boy.  So here’s this guy dressed up in checkered overalls, and it felt like home.

And then for women, I think I have never seen so many slutty costumes.  They look like strippers.

Not that I’m complaining, mind you.  Whoa, Nellie.

This was a trip with no shows or field trips.  Just lots of sports betting, slot playing, and people watching. 

Feels like the stock market is where it wants to be at pre-election.  We’ve been dancing around here for the last couple of weeks.  Lets see how it breaks after Tuesday.  We have early month strength and the election pattern working for us.  We have a weary trend in need of a correction and the Black Box sell signals working against us.

My election prediction:  Republicans gain 703 House seats and 114 Senate seats.

It’s a wave, er, Tsunami.  Expect the unexpected.