Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Inverted Yield Curve


 
  • Have you seen the Wall Street Journal commercial, where they tout all these successful people who read The Journal?  "I'm retiring at 50," one guy say as he reaches in his golf bag for a driver.  "I started my own business," says another.

  • Bowl week!  Many have already come and gone, but the bulk of them happen over the next week!

  • So we have an inverted yield curve between the 2yr and the 10yr.  And folks are saying this forecasts an economic slowdown or recession.  I think the official definition is the 90-day vs. the 30-yr, but folks can agree to disagree.  It's pretty flat, though.  Bill Cara discusses it more here.

  • Barry Ritholz on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle.

  • Does reading the Wall Street Journal really influence you financial outcome?  Maybe that guy who is retiring at 50 is a public safety officer in California who received a 3% at 50 retirement package, and had a lot of free time during the work day to read the paper.  How do we know that this isn't the case?

  • More on the yield curve, comparing the 2-yr to the 10-yr, from CBS Marketwatch.  Despite what you'll hear about this "always predicting a crash," this article does point out that The yield curve briefly inverted in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, the only time in the past 30 years that an inverted yield curve has not preceded a recession.

  • I won my Fantasy Football league!

  • 1998 was pretty choppy, though!  It also presented a great Four-Year Presidential cycle buying opportunity in the fall.

  • As you can see in some of the comments here, many are convinced that 2006 will be a bad year for stocks.  Maybe most folks are thinking it'll be a horrible year at this point.  But all anybody has to offer is opinions.  You can find any that you like out there for the taking.  Opinions are low-hanging fruit.

  • I subscribe to the Wall Street Journal online edition.  How will this impact my future, compared to those who subscribe to the hard copy?  Am I going to be able to retire at 50?  Am I going to be able to start my own business? 

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