Friday, April 01, 2011

Market Seasonal Strength Winding Down?

seasonal strengthWe're now in April, and for the stock market that could mean that the seasonal strength pattern is winding down.

You know the seasonal pattern, right? That's the historical pattern where stocks tend to do better from October to May, and worse from May through September. And this has been further refined by Jeff Hirsch and Sy Harding, who both have their own indicators for entering and exiting on specific days within the pattern.

So we're at highs in the market, and we're in the Spring. Seems like a perfect setup for a seasonal top - at some point. If we were already mired in a correction, I'd think we'd have some upside work to do before the seasonal top is in. But this is something to keep an eye on.

Of course, if you're reading this then you know that I already sold down my high-beta holdings back on January 18th, and rotated into lower-beta stuff, a little cash. I also have some oil stuff. So this is actually holding up pretty well for the last 3 months versus the market, which seems as if, despite the volatility and horrific news headlines, hasn't gone anywhere.
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Dodgers 2-0, and against those dreaded Giants!

Started cycling, as we're seeing warmer weather here now.

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