Good column up at Marketwatch on the differences in stock market volume in bull and bear markets.
The writer’s point of view is hat we are in the latter half of a lengthy bear market. I think that agrees with the secular bear market point of view, and that we’re now in a cyclical bull market. I tend to agree with that.
In addition, I think it’s important to be long right now. But looking at the seasonal stuff, and since we’re right near the bull market peak, I’m wondering if we’ll see a trading range for awhile. And that’s been my position since January 18th, when I sold high beta and went into lower beta.
Yeah, I’m repeating myself a bit, but lets look at a chart of the QQQ:
The SPY:
The DIA:
So the January 18th date isn’t THE date for the market, but looks like the trading range idea was valid. And the NDX (QQQ) is below the 1/18 number for now.