Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Subprime Takeovers and CA Voting Guide

  • Microsoft to borrow money for Yahoo deal. I believe the details are no money down with a low 2-year teaser rate that's negatively amortized, and then resets at prevailing rates.  Seems like nothing could go wrong there!  Subprime takeovers!
  • Well, the market stumbling out of the gate again today.  The common consensus is that the bear market rally (aka "countertrend rally") has run its course and now we're heading back down to retest the lows.  Even Investor's Business Daily seemed to bend their rules on follow-through days last week, stating that we didn't have a follow-through day because of some newly invented reason.  I heard the info second-hand so I'm not going to try to reiterate all of the details, only that they're not bullish as far as I know.
  • Of course, the market wedged up off the lows and needs a breather.  While a retest of the lows is likely inevitable, I'd think any countertrend rally worth its salt would have us trade in a range here for a bit before heading back down to the lows.  This kind of action would create the kind of throwing in of the towel capitulation that we need to end the correction and resume the bull market.
  • Super Tuesday here in CA! Muckdog's CA voting guide:

President:  Mitt Romney.  He's a Mormon, just like Donny and Marie.  And who didn't like that 1970's variety show? Marie recently did well on Dancing with the Stars, too.  I think a Mitt Romney administration would probably include cabinet positions for Donny and Marie:  Secretary of Country and  Secretary of Rock'n Roll. 

Other than that, Romney is just your vanilla GOP candidate.  Low taxes.  Tough on terrorists.  And here's a Republican who has a command of the English language.  Hello, breath of fresh air!  Mitt 2008! 

No on Propositions 91, 92 and 93.  There is something to be said for the status quo.

Propositions 94-97 - Expand Indian gaming.  Yes.  The state needs the money, and gambling revenue is one of the only ways to tax the poor.

  • On the Democrat ticket, I imagine Hillary is the favorite to win despite the emotional fervor Obama has.  I think the younger voters are pretty enthusiastic about Obama.  I think that makes Obama the JFK or Reagan candidate of this era.  Whether or not the nation is ready for that, I don't know.  But he's a very motivating speaker that would definitely change the landscape from this one of gridlock and infighting to one of "working consensus."
  • Should Hillary win, I think it'd just be more of the same of what we have now.  She's the status quo candidate.  Which is fine if you believe that gridlock is the best form of government.  Many people are of that view.

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