Friday, February 08, 2008

TGIF

  • I'm still in my ETFC trade, for what it's worth. I was concerned with the selling earlier in the week, but nothing moves up in a straight line.  Being patient and watching how it reacts here near recent highs.  Volume is kind of light.
  • Overall, I'm still bullish on the stock market, even with this relatively severe market correction.  Hey, they happen.  We can't just have smooth and orderly 5% pullbacks now and then.  Every once and awhile, folks need to stare fear down.
  • My playbook says, and who really cares, but it says that pre-options week weakness should be bought ahead of a potential options week rally.
  • Fed's Janet Yellen:  Economy weak, but no recession.  "I consider it most probable that the U.S. economy will experience slow growth, and not outright recession, in coming quarters," Yellen said.
  • On the tax rebates, Yellen was positive about Congress' economic stimulus bill and relatively low inflation. She said that the tax rebate legislation, which was passed late Thursday, "could provide notable stimulus in the latter half of the year."
  • Came down with the flu or cold yesterday.  Using Zicam.  It's pretty much a miracle drug.  Highly recommend it.
  • The neutral signal is on at Jason'sThis just means that the market is at a decision point and that should be decided tomorrow or Monday on whether the bear rally will resume which should lead to new bear rally highs or whether the lows getting taken out.
  • With Mitt Romney dropping out, McCain is now The Chosen One.  But the bad news for Honest John is that the conservatives don't support him.  With the Republicans in the popularity doghouse, I don't expect McCain to win this fall anyways.  The Democrats should enjoy a landslide victory in the Fall.
  • Prepare yourself for higher taxes.  And how will that play out in the stock market?  Right now, long-term capital gains taxes are at 15%.  They'd most likely go up under Hillary or Obama.  And if the marriage penalty tax comes back, married couples will be paying more taxes.  The Democrats have also talked about raising or eliminating the Social Security tax ceiling. 
  • From Liberal Larry

Rejoice, fellow liberals, for with Hillary and McCain both poised to receive their party's nomination on this most Super of Super Tuesdays, November will mark the first time in U.S. history that two Democrats have ran against each other in a Presidential election.

The question everyone is asking, however, is whether McCain has what it takes to energize his liberal base. His calls for amnesty for undocumented workers, his opposition to Bush's Tax Cuts for the Wealthiest One Percent of Americans, and his long, romantic walks on the beach with Senator Kennedy suggests that he does. However, there is reason to suspect that despite his progressive record in the Senate, McCain isn't as devout a Democrat as he would like everyone to believe.

First of all, he's running as a Republican. That's already raised some eyebrows within Democrat Party circles. Secondly...well, I guess that's about it. I can't really think of any other reasons to believe that John McCain is a conservative.

Nevertheless, I'm not ready to make an official endorsement.  I was almost tricked once. It may yet turn out that McCain is every bit as conservative as Obama is.

 

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