Saturday, October 25, 2008

The Value of the Long View

Vanguard's John Bogle (not pictured) on the Long View.

Mr. Bogle, 79, has been warning for years about the excesses of Wall Street, where, he says, the triumph of “salesmanship” over financial “stewardship” produced colossal losses for millions of people. He is armed with statistics showing that a vast majority of investors — including most professional investment managers — should not even bother trying to pick individual stocks. They are just not very good at it, he says. Better to invest in the broad market through index funds with low costs, allowing the shareholders, and not the investment managers, to profit when times are good.

As for trying to time the ups and downs of the market, Mr. Bogle contends that the chances of being right over any extended period are so negligible that it’s a fool’s errand to try.

Yet for simple, straightforward reasons, he says that this is a very good time to put money into stocks — not for short-term trades, mind you, but as part of a diversified portfolio that you hold for many years.

Common sense.  We heard Warren Buffett comment in previous weeks that he doesn't know where the bottom of the bear market is, but that he was buying stocks because he felt they were of value and over the long term would appreciate.  Now John Bogle chimes in that it is a good time to buy equities.