In my 2009 review, I didn’t update Abby Joseph Cohen’s forecast! Here’s what she said in January, 2009:
Jan 1, 2009: Leading the bulls is Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs. She's calling for a big jump in the S&P 500 index, to end the year at 1,150. Cohen expects the market leaders to be energy and technology and she thinks U.S. stocks and high-quality corporate bonds will pay off when the economy stabilizes, around midyear.
The S&P 500 ended 2009 at 1115.10. Pretty close. The economy didn’t actually “stabilize” in mid-year, and many would say that’s a goal we have yet to achieve.
What did Abby Joseph Cohen predict for 2010?
Cohen says she expects GDP growth of 4% to 4.5% in the current quarter. But she thinks that will slow in 2010 to about 2%, as the rough labor market and household balance sheet troubles will hold back growth. She also thinks corporate profits will be less than expected because inventories have already been rebuilt and the government’s stimulus programs will create less of a boost than they have in 2009. But, she adds, the average U.S. corporation is “flush” with cash right now, and she thinks the S&P 500 should get into the 1250-1300 range by the end of 2010.