Thursday, December 24, 2015

Merry Christmas!

  • imageFirst, Merry Christmas to all!  I hope you have a wonderful day with family and friends.
  • As far as investing goes, this is the time of year where I reflect on what happened to the portfolio in 2015 and how I want to plan for 2016.  And which bowl games I should bet on.  Those things.
  • First, one of the major mistakes I ALMOST MADE early in 2015 was thinking about selling McDonalds (MCD).  Nobody liked it early in the year.  Too much competition on every corner.  People wanted healthier options.  Etc.  Well, the stock has been one of the big winners in my portfolio this year.  No matter what the crowd was thinking earlier in the year, they missed it.  I almost fell victim to the crowd-think.  But I didn’t.  Phew.
  • Applying that to 2016, what stocks are buyable here?  Energy?  $IBM?  $WMT?  Those are Dow laggards, right?  The whole Dogs of the Dow idea in a nutshell.  Is IBM yesterday’s news, too big and slow to make it in the world of new tech?  And what about Walmart?  Amazon and the online world too much for the old retailer?  HMMMM…. Just thinking out loud.
  • Energy?  EOG?  XOM?  I heard on the news how Saudi Arabia is pumping and pumping to drive out the American competition on the oil market.  But heck, the new budget just allowed oil exports from the US.  I don’t know.  Just thinking out loud.  Again.
  • Big winners in my portfolio… Facebook.  Disney.  Well, Disney WAS a big winner until recently.  Yah, ESPN woes.  I still like the magic kingdom, and see nothing but blockbuster movies and crowded theme parks for years and years.  And I watch a lot of sports, so I’m not canceling my cable just yet.  Buy what you know, Peter Lynch.
  • Facebook…  I still see it going to $1000 someday.  Not in a straight line, though.  And there will be a bear market or two along the way where the stock gets trashed. But I think it will be around and growing.
  • Also thinking about some of the drug companies that have been sold off from their earlier 2015 highs.
  • That’s about it on this Christmas eve. Where I just went to Target and it was packed to the rafters with last minute shoppers.  As was the Starbucks inside the store, with long lines of folks buying gift cards and big drinks with whip cream.
  • Merry Christmas!

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