#141: Super Bowl Recap, Stocks Flat, YUM Brands, Oil Prices

The New York Giants Win!

The Giants beat the Patriots, and the Super Bowl indicator suggests 2012 will be a good year for the stock market!

The Super Bowl was a great game today. Wes Welker gets the blame for missing a tough catch, but if the Patriots would have won with that last drive, Ahmad Bradshaw would have received the blame for not kneeling down at the 1-yard line. The game was that close. Twitter says that if the teams played a rematch, the Patriots would be favored by 2.5.

The commercials were so-so. The halftime show was lip-synched. And who wants to discuss the hygiene issues with the Super Bowl trophy as it was slobbered all over on the way up to the stage?

Now back to the important things. The stock market is on a nice run. Mitt Romney is on the way to the GOP nomination. The Lakers still haven't traded for Dwight Howard. Spring training opens up in a few weeks with pitchers and catchers reporting.

On with the show!

posted from Bloggeroid

My Super Bowl Pick: New York Giants

I took the New York Giants and the 3 points, plus the under 55 points. I parlayed them. I took the money-line on the Giants to win straight up.

Bottom line is that I think the Giants are better than the Patriots. The Giants have a better defense. Defense wins championships. The Giants have a better running game, and both Bradshaw and Jacobs are healthy. The Giants have better receivers - maybe the best trio in the game. This can be a ball control offense. Manning has done well against the pass rush. Of course, the Giants were a little inconsistent in the middle of the season when the injury bug hit them, but they are at full strength and have momentum.

The Patriots have better tight ends, but Gronkowksi is hurting. Don't overlook the impact Gronk has in this offense - especially near the redzone. The Patriots running game has been weak. The defense is weak. Do the Patriots have a deep-threat wide receiver? Tom Brady is a great quarterback and Wes Welker is great underneath the coverage. Brady can look off his game with a good pass rush.

On paper.

The reality is that the game will come down to turnovers and penalties. At this level, both teams can win. The Giants will need to pressure Brady. The Patriots will need to get to Manning. The key to winning this game is messing up the other team's quarterback and not making the mental mistakes.

Nachos? Taquitos? Brats?

Be careful with the alcohol. Nobody wants a DUI tomorrow. Be safe.

posted from Bloggeroid

#140: Super Bowl Pick; Bernanke; Growth vs. Dividends; Facebook

Stocks in the Year of the Rabbit

The Super Bowl is over, so let's take a look at the market as we race into the Year of the Rabbit.

Ooh lah lah.

The monthly strength period winds down as the paycheck money has been dollar-cost averaged into the stock market. Earnings season is still in play, but winding down a bit as many of the big names have reported. Oil prices are rising due to a rebounding economy domestically and internationally. Oh, and Egypt continues to be in the headlines as protestors continue to protest.

And I didn't even bring up the Glee special after the Super Bowl. (That's on as I type, and the Glee cast are all dressed up as monsters singing the Thriller song. Or some version of it).

February tends to be one of the weaker months of the year. Or, as I like to say, the tenth best month of the year on average.

This is where it may get a little interesting.

The bull trend is going strong, even though sentiment continues to be too bullish. But sentiment does that sometimes, and it can last longer than anyone thinks it's possible. At some point it will matter, but who's to say when that will be?

I reduced my beta in January but continue to be mostly long with a little cash.

A little less cash after the Steelers loss. Hey, I was moving on, right? On to the NBA and don't the pitchers and catchers report in MLB soon?

Go Daddy and the Super Bowl Weekend

It's super bowl weekend, and that means Go Daddy. Oh, and football.

This is just an excuse to put up a picture of a Go Daddy girl. Maybe I'll post some more over the next few days.

The super bowl is big business. Anyone who thought it was just about the Steelers and Packers are wearing blinders! This is about sales and advertising. Advertisers want eyeballs on their products, and the super bowl is the delivery means.

Plus, heck, we like to watch super bowl commercials! Especially new commercials. If it's a retread, sighs will be heard from family rooms around the country!
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The stock market doing well. I thought folks might want to take some off the table ahead of a weekend when riots are happening in the middle east.

But, no.

Super Bowl Pick: Steelers or Packers?

I am up in Reno making my super bowl bets today. The weather was nice enough to get over the hill without snow nor worrying about snow.

So, the Packers are 2.5 point Favorites and the over/under is 44.5.

Here is my pick.

I took the Steelers on the money line at +1.30. To win outright!

I also did a two-team parlay, taking Steelers +2.5 and over 44.5.

Just a contrarian play. Everyone I talk to and hear are picking Green Bay. Sounds like last year when folks were taking The Colts. I went the Saints and won big.

Maybe my luck will run out. But Go Steelers!
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And go St. Marys. I have them at Portland at 4pm!

Back to Stimulus

With the Super Bowl behind us (and the Cardinals covering the spread and the over), the nations's eyes turn back to the economy.

Did Budweiser really spend $18 million on those commercials? I stopped counting at 6 commercials. Maybe it was more.

Back to President Obama's (not pictuted) goal of a stimulus package by Presidents Day. The question is how much in tax breaks and boondoggle pork to include to get consensus and help the economy. My thoughts are that we need help here in 2009. I'm a little nervous about an economic recovery that has wording like "by 2020, we' like to..."

The picture is of Gretchen Mol, from Life on Mars.

Super Bowl Prediction - Arizona +7

I was in Reno last night staring at the wall in the Sports Book, wondering what to do in Sunday's Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. This game could be a blowout in either direction. I won't be surprised at whatever the outcome is. I could easily rationalize a bet in either direction.

The Steelers have a fantastic defense and a ball control offense. Anyone who played fantasy football this year knows that Pittsburgh's defense kills fantasy stats. And Arizona's offense is a fantasy offense. The Steelers defense gave Joe Flacco some time to pass and he doesn't have the same kind of receivers that the Cardinals have. But the defense has been good at home and on the road. The Steelers offense can mount mind-numing 8-minute drives. Willie Parker is healthy. Ben Roethlisberger has been gritty and smart. But that offensive unit is a bit suspect. I don't think the offensive line is that great, as Roethlisberger has taken some hits this year. Hines Ward may not be 100% healthy, and those other wideouts seem to drop a lot of balls.

Who would've thought Arizona would be here? I've certainly been wrong about the Cardinals during the playoffs. The Cardinals offense is fun to watch and has done well against some good defenses. Kurt Warner is smart in the pocket and quick to recognize the defense. He has Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston running routes. Warner has been quick to release the ball to a variety of targets when the pass rush comes. The running game has improved in the playoffs, but it is going up against Pittsburgh's defense. The Cardinals' defense has surprised me and has shut down running backs Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook. That defense has also limited the impact of big name wideouts (Roddy White, Steve Smith).

At some point you have to stop staring at the wall in the Sports Book and pick a side. I stepped up to the counter and called out for the Cardinals +7. I also took the over on 46.5 points on the game. I think the probabilty is higher that Arizona either wins straight up or Pittsburgh wins a close game, compared to Pittsburgh dominating the scoreboard for 60 minutes.

It's just a guess. I just hope it's fun to watch.

I also made a ton of proposition bets. A ton. Parlayed the number of interceptions, field goals and sacks in a 3-pick parlay. Each quarter, I have bets on the over-under and point winner for the quarter. I bet on players to score and not score touchdowns. I bet on what would happen on Warner's first pass and Ben's first pass. Just stuff to keep the game interesting. I told the guy at the sportsbook that I'll probably be so hammered during the game, that I won't be able to keep track of all of these proposition bets. He laughed and said, "Just bring the tickets back up, and we'll sort them out." LOL.

Good luck. Enjoy the game.