Thursday's Views on the News

Mexico incensed by new US border fence plans. Few things unite Mexicans more than perceived U.S. insults and plans to build a high-tech fence to stop migrants crossing the border have incensed people here, regardless of their social class or political stripes.

==> Oh, boy. This one is a powderkeg. On one hand, I understand Americans who are tired of seeing tax dollars spent on illegal immigrants. I also understand the national security issues with having an open border. But it's obvious that with a Republican President in Washington DC, this will be categorized as a racist move. I think the only way to get this done, is to implement some worker Visa program that allows folks to come over to the US and work legally.

CBSMarketwatch's Mark Hulbert asks contrarian investors if you talk the talk, do you walk the walk? How many of you have stepped up to the plate recently and bought shares of General Motors?

==> Hell no. I'm a pussy. But this article makes you think about it. Good job, Mark.

Health care concessions at Ford and a deal is near at GM.

Ford: The UAW said 51 percent of members voted in favor of the deal reached last week. It has said the agreement will help Ford save $850 million annually in health care expenses.

GM: The healthcare deal would save the world's largest automaker $1 billion a year in healthcare costs.

==> Maybe that contrarian play could work out, eh? US car companies had to do something. Wouldn't it be nice if as a first step, they built cars that people wanted to buy? Wouldn't that resolve a lot of their money problems? It is true that management negotiated horrible contracts with the union, that have put the companies in a bind. Not like those managers who negotiated those deals care a whole bunch. Are many still around, or are they off on a remote island basking in the sunshine?

Last game of Monday Night Football on ABC. When the New York Jets and New England Patriots end their football game next Monday, the lights will go out on one of the great shows in the history of television.

==> It's just hopping to ESPN. Smaller viewership, but most sports nuts will still be watching.

Leading indicators post solid gains. The Index of Leading Indicators, which is supposed to forecast economic trends up to six months ahead, rose for the second straight month, climbing to 0.5 percent after rising a revised 1 percent in October, the Conference Board said.

==> Sorry, bears. Can't seem to find much bad news to stick in your Christmas stockings. I know everyone on the planet is predicting a Santa Claus rally. And everyone on the planet seems to be predicting a bad 2006 for stocks. The news coming out from this economy aren't too cold, aren't too hot, and seem to be just fine. Say, that reminds me of a fairy tale...

Santa Claus Rally

Don't make fun of the Santa Claus rally, Muck.

• The market bouncing around a little today, but with the Nasdaq leading the way, I think it's good news for folks looking for a Santa Claus rally.   The Nasdaq tends to lead the way for the rest of the market.  Of course, isn't everybody on the planet expecting next week to be positive?


• I'm still Christmas shopping.  I started out great with online buying, but I still find myself scrambling around afterhours trying to finish things up.


• The NY transit strike is over.  I guess both sides agreed to end it, and return to the bargaining table.  The union wants to discuss pensions and healthcare.  You know, those two issues are going to be huge for the US down the road.  I think both private and public organizations have promised far more than they can deliver.


• Microsoft faces $2.37 million a day in fines from the EU if they don't comply with the 2004 antitrust ruling.  Is this why the stock has been taking a beating?


• Did you see the picture of the fish (trout) with two mouths?  Maybe this one was caught downstream from Monty Burns' nuclear power plant, eh Smithers?


• I finaly saw the latest Harry Potter movie. It was okay.  A little less cutesy and charming than the others.  But Valdemont is back, and I suppose that'll set up the next movie.  I haven't read the books, so don't spoil it for me!


• I'm so busy here at the Fun Factory.  Not a great time of year for that.  I'd rather be chatting and milling about.  But they decided to start a new project while we're implementing the previous one, and trying to deal with that fallout.  It's crazy.  I'm feeling a lot of pressure.

Wednesday's Views on the News

Cheney casts tie-breaking vote in Senate to pass budget.  The Republican-controlled Senate passed legislation to cut federal deficits by $39.7 billion on Wednesday by the narrowest of margins, 51-50, with Vice President Dick Cheney casting the deciding vote.

==> This is one of those smoke and mirror deals where "budget cuts" really mean slowing the rate of growth, not actual spending cuts.   Maybe we should try this approach at home.  Try this with your spouse next month "Honey, instead of spending $900 for that new set of golf clubs, I'm going to spend $700.  I figure that would cut our monthly budget by $200."

Drilling in ANWR fails.  A quarter-century long fight over the nation's most divisive environmental issue rages on after the Senate on Wednesday rejected opening an Alaska wildlife refuge to oil drilling.

==> This is the kind of news that is somewhat troubling.  The US burns over 20,000,000 barrels of oil a day.  12,000,000 of that is imported.  ANWR would bring upwards of 1,000,000 barrels of oil a day to market within 5 years.  Either we burn it, or sell it to Japan.   If we sell 1,000,000 barrels of oil a day from ANWR to Japan for $55 a barrel, that gives us $55,000,000 a day to buy oil from Canada/Mexico/wherever that we don't currently have today.  It would represent 5% of our total oil consumption needs on a daily basis.  In 5 years, we're going to need that oil from somewhere.  There isn't any widescale use of alternative energies to replace oil at this point. Everything talked about so far has minimal impact.

Wednesday's Quick Hits

• I'm trying to get back into the flow of the markets.  I updated my Black Box last night, and it was frightening to see how right it has seemed to be regarding the sell signals I received earlier in the month.   I do remain long the market, but did sell my Microsoft.  I still am bullish on the markets, and wonder how deep the pullback will be.  If it gets deeper, I'll roll into more aggressive positions.


• I don't like the new format of CNBC.  I have to squint to see the ticker numbers at the top of the screen.  I also have to scroll the width of the screen to see the numbers, instead of focus in the bottom right-hand corner.  Of course, as financial TV goes, they're the best game in the business.  Although maybe I'll flip to Bloomberg and see what their morning show is like.


• So, where do you stand on the value vs. growth investment philosophies?  (Can you tell that I'm reading Jeremy Seigal's latest book?)


• How'd I do in Las Vegas?  Well, the casinos have probably already sent their free room deals to my mailbox as I type.  Whatever they can do to get me back as soon as possible.  (That's how I did...)


• (Chevy Chase's move Las Vegas Vacation is one of my favorites.)


• This time of year, folks are generally feeling optimistic about the next year.  For some reason, I'm sensing some gloom.  I think folks believe we're heading into a recession, and that 2006 will be a bear market.


• President Bush's approval numbers are going up.

Vacation Reading

I finished Freakonomics. Now reading The Future for Investors by Jeremy Siegel. More to follow on Freakonomics, and don't forget to check out their blog at freakonomics.com!

The 2006 Bear Market

As you know, most everyone on the planet is expecting a bear market in 2006, and it would appear as if everyone is trying to exit the market before it happens. I remain bullish, as I think the bears will be wrong yet again.

I'm again Treo blogging. I'm in Las Vegas, where there's a bear market everyday on the casino floor. That is, unless you're the House!

Christmas Week

Remember the two week break when we were in school? I've noticed that lots of folks (ADULTS) do this. I think that's great.

The markets might be volatile on lower volume, but I think we should see an upwards bias.

Blogging from my Treo!