Dad

Back from SoCal again. Went down again over the weekend. My dad had a very short battle with cancer, and died yesterday morning. It happened really quickly, and he didn't even know he was sick until just over a week ago. He was alert for a few days, and then just fell asleep and never woke up. I'm a wave of mixed emotions. At one point, I'm sad. The next, laughing at a memory. I can't get him off of my mind right now. As the days and weeks go on, I'll be littering comments about Dad within my entries.

Where'd $30 Billion Go?

• Wow, Microsoft down 11% as I type.  How much money just evaporated?  $30 billion?  MSFT has been in a trading range for the past 4 years, and I've been in and out of it from time to time.  As it drifts lower, I'll have to watch it again.
• I think we better get use to the idea of a nuclear armed Iran, as they tell us to shove it.
• The Black Box was status quo last night after giving some buy signals the day before (that I mentioned yesterday).  I decided not to take any action on them.

• I think Kellie Pickler has a future in something.  She definitely has a media-friendly presence.   I listened to Jim Cramer's radio show yesterday, and he was mentioning her in the same sentence as Jessica Alba.
• This idea about giving Americans a $100 gas card is ridiculous.  As is the idea about a 60-month tax break on the federal gas tax.  Liberals have been wanting higher fuel prices to encourage conservation.  Now that prices are higher, they're realizing folks don't conserve because we all have to get places and that fuel isn't a huge expense in our budgets.  We can simply adjust by eating out less, renting movies instead of going to the theaters, cutting a few cable channels, and stuff like that.  The answer seems to be to increase supply and refining capacity for the short term, and for the long term becoming more fuel efficient and developing alternative energy sources to meet all our energy needs.  It's not that complicated.   Open up ANWR and other sites for the short term.  Get the clean coal stuff going.  Build a few new nuclear power plants.  And get going on ethanol.

Silly Love Songs

Money, money, money, money.... Money!

I ran the Black Box last night, and it liked pharma.  Specifically, PPH, BMY, LLY, and JNJ.  I didn't buy any today, though.  It also liked IBB, and looked like we could stage a bounce in the QQQQ and SMH.  So I went to bed last night thinking that if we got a dip today, I'd buy some QQQQ and IBB.  Why?

• Monthly strength (401k contributions and such).
• Down multiple days in a row on Nasdaq after post-options week lull, heading into a friday where shorts would be tempting to take profits and a day where monthly strength picks up.

I didn't do it this morning.  Why?  Look at the picture.  That was me this morning.  I woke up and saw the Nasdaq down about 14.  "Cool!"  But I decided to take a shower and get ready for work before I did anything.  Oops.  Market was up by the time I was leaving. Since I'm not too excited abou the market heading forward (summer and election year cycle), I decided to let the fishies swim by for the day. I think some folks will lighten up on strength over the next week. We'll see. I don't know about the Black Box and the Pharma picks. Something to watch, but I probably won't do much with that.

Oh, Kellie Pickler is finaly gone...  Phew.

Island Girl

• Michelle Rodriguez, gets 5 days of prison after being found guilty of drunken driving.  Is there a prison on that island?  She has quite a history.
• Haven't had time to ask the Black Box about the market since I arrived back from LA.  I'll run some scans tonight.  Post-options week, no reason to do anything IMHO.  But we do have month-end strength scheduled to start either tomorrow or friday.  If we're down this week, it may start on friday since traders may book profits ahead of the weekend.  That could start a rally for a few days.   But I'm thinking that folks may use any monthly strength to lighten up ahead of summer.  Maybe....  Eh, I'm not doing anything right here.  If the Black Box indicates something interesting, I'd take a look at it.
• I caught the last two singers on American Idol last night.  Taylor did bad, and Chris did well.  Only saw the clips from the others, and going from that I'd think that Kellie Pickler and Paris would join Taylor in the bottom three.  I'm not a big fan of Elliot, though.  So I'd like to see him voted off the island.

 

Walking in LA

• President Bush has a plan to lower oil prices. Much to the Democrats' chagrin, it does not include "Making Dick Cheney pay for it." But seriously, as we get into May and the summer driving season, I don't see demand waning for fuel. Besides, how big of a deal is it for most Americans? Sure, some struggle with it. But for most, another $1 a gallon is just $15 a trip to the gas station. People spend more weekly at Starbucks.


• In LA for the past few days. Not actually LA, but this whole area is "LA" to most folks. Lets just say SoCal...


• The market continues to do what it did before the huge up day last week. Just mostly grind lower while the bulls say "Everything looks okay." Maybe. I remain in low-beta holdings and have some cash on the sidelines from the tech sells a few weeks ago. Not rushing into anything. Pos-options week tends to be weak after a decent options week. We do have the month-end strength coming up, but many folks exit the market for the summer around that time. (Sell in May and go away...)


• Study shows secret to gas-free beans. Gee, where's the fun in that? Imagine if those were around when Blazing Saddles was filmed. I mean, what about the campfire seen?


• Sin of all sins... I missed 24 last night! Out of town in LA, and don't have the DVR going. Geez.


• It's nice here in SoCal. I used to live down here, so it feels like home in so many ways. Lots of memories. But the traffic is just nuts. And so many people. Heading back to Sac tonight. Where the traffic and crowds are also getting quite thick...


• Borrowing a line from Office Space about missing work... "I not 'missing it.'"

Very Quick Thought...

I feel comfortable with my low-beta holdings and nothing tech centric, as I continue to wonder about election year cycles and seasonal tendencies. Lots of negative divergences and semiconductor sell signals last week from the Black Box. Nothing to do here but watch as far as I'm concerned. Let the gunslingers take the risk with beta. Post-options week, heading into May, the fear of gas prices going to a bazillion dollars a gallon... Eh, no thanks.

Paula

• Hey, after watching American Idol on tuesday night, I had an idea on a career move Paula Abdul could make should the popular show decide to make a change in the judging booth next season.  Instead of mentioning the career move idea explicitly, somewhere in this blog entry I have placed a clue.  I know, it may be tricky to find.  But discerning readers should be able to pick it up.  I have faith in you.
• When most folks who want in the market are already in the market, I think we see the market start to churn a bit.  Folks move from one sector to the next, trying to eek out gains above and beyond the returns of the major index.  Especially folks who were underinvested or late to the party.  They're trying to make up for the time they were out.  I don't know if this is happening now, but it's something I look for.  The Black Box generated a sell on some semiconductors last night, but as you know I bailed out of those a few weeks ago.  And who knows about that Black Box, this run may not be over yet.
• I was very disappointed that Lost was not on last night.  As a matter of fact, I'm leaning more and more to just watching series by DVD.  The unfortunate thing is that you miss that real-time water-cooler-at-the-office thing, but on the other hand you get the commercials, clip shows, or pre-empting by olympics or TV specials.  (Pssst... Don't tell the advertisers.)
• Fantasy hoops is over, and I backdoored my way into second place.  The guy was sneaking up on me in turnovers, so I benched my players the last two games.  It worked, but barely.  He finished with 2 more turnovers than I had, and knocked himself down a point which was enough to move me up.  Another guy almost caught me in steals...  Nailbiter!