More on the 200dma

Here is more on the 200dma. Again, no reason to panic today as we are back where we were in early June an much of the fear is what has already driven the markets down. JMHO of couse.

Amplify’d from finance.yahoo.com

Below 200-Day MA - False Alarm or Historic Sell Signal?

In terms of prominence, the 200-day moving average (MA) is the VIP of technical indicators. The 200-day MA is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that is technically healthy and one that is not.

See more at finance.yahoo.com

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Panic in the Markets!

Lots of negative vibes out on the market today.  $$   Is it time to go long stocks?

 

The market is retesting the June lows.  For those of us with cash on the sidelines, not a bad place to bet against the panic.  Can always get out if it drops more.

 

Yes, the market is below the 200dma and the 50dma is trending lower.  I was listening to someone say that this is not the time to be buying stocks.  Yet, when we look back at the market, there does come a point each and every time when the market is like this that it is the exact time to buy. 

 

Is this now?  That’s the question!  The market still in the historically bad period (Summer).  We’re in the mid-term election year, which usually sees a sell-off followed by a rally. 

 

I remain with lots of cash on the sidelines, but may put some money back to work.

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Saturday Randomosity and Rachel McAdams!

• Baseball.  iPhones.  Basketball.  X-rated domains.  A little bit of everything this week, sprinkled heavily with salt.


• I'm heading to a Sacramento Rivercats game tomorrow.  Temperature expected to be 101 degrees. I'm sure my seats are in the sunshine.  I think I'll be watching, standing up, from the concourse level.  Misters, got any misters?


• So the Apple iPhone antenna is set in such a way that right-handed folks can obscure the antenna and kill phone reception.  Nice!  And Steve Jobs answer?  Don't hold it that way, foooools!  (Okay, I added the foooools part.  But I have a hunch that's what he was thinking).


• A new x-rated domain for the internet, XXX.  If you build it, they will come.  Maybe they will come more than once.  Just saying.  Bah.


• NEWSFLASH:  Americans eat too much salt.  Ya think?


• I'm a Lakers fan stuck here in Kings country, but the Kings made a nice draft pick in DeMarcus Cousins.  I guess things always look good on draft day, but I think this kid is a winner winner chicken dinner.


• For new phone seekers, there is the Verizon Droid X.  But who would want to switch to a limited data plan if you're already grandfathered in to an unlimited data plan with ATT?


• Picture is of Rachel McAdams.  I realized that the 3 most recent movies I've watched star the very attractive woman.  Coincidence or am I a stalker?  I watched The Time Travelers Wife last night.  It was okay.  Not bad.  A little slow, but interesting.

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Are Unemployment Benefits a Jobs Program?

I heart the WSJ James Taranto. Here via Orange Punch we look at the failure to extend unemployment benefits, and wonder if it is really a setback to jobs.

As I mentioned earlier, it sounds heartless to deny benefits to the unemployed. Yet, I do agree with Taranto and the folks at Orange Punch.

Amplify’d from orangepunch.ocregister.com

The Associated Press reported today that the Democrats suffered a set-back on their “jobs agenda.”

Says AP: “The demise of Democrats’ job-agenda legislation means that unemployment benefits will phase out for more than 200,000 people a week.”

Yep. As the Wall Street Journal’s James Taranto put it: “Paying people not to work is a ‘jobs agenda’ in the same sense as, per Orwell, ignorance is strength or war is peace.”

And if that’s not Orwellian enough for you, Taranto adds “The failed bill also would have pumped federal money into state governments…” Read more at orangepunch.ocregister.com

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Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Always worth paying attention to market cycles. I think we are still in the secular bear market that began in 2000.

Amplify’d from www.tradersnarrative.com

See more at www.tradersnarrative.com

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TGIF Randomosity

• 77% of iPhone sales were upgrades. $AAPL has brand loyalty but also getting new folks. And those are the early adopters!
• Financial reform package won't affect Wall Street much. Don't these guys in Congress get lots of money from Wall Street? Just wondering.
• Hurricane heading towards oil spill? You knew it was going to happen. In the movies, this is where Bruce Willis would go down to the gulf and stop the leak. Or Captain Picard would have Laforge target the deflector array on the hurricane to change its course. But, this isn't Hollywood.
• The stock market meandering around. Lots of negative stuff out there, and I think that we will still have lots of chop through the summer.

Hulu to Charge Subscription?

Ugh. I watch a lot of TV through Hulu to my TV. The last thing I want is yet another monthly subscription. I suppose they see a chance to make money, but it seems as if Hulu has increased the number of commercials already.

Amplify’d from www.wallstreetjournal.com

Hulu Could Begin Testing Subscription Service This Month

Online video site Hulu could begin testing a paid subscription service as early as later this month, according to people briefed on the plans, a high-profile test of whether consumers will pay to watch television shows online.

The service would initially be a "preview," available only to invited users, said the people briefed on the matter. Those users would pay a monthly fee of around $10 for access to additional content on top of Hulu's free offerings, and also get the ability to watch Hulu on Apple Inc.'s iPad and possibly other devices, said one of these people.

This person cautioned that the timing could be pushed back and some details could change. Read more at www.wallstreetjournal.com

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iPhone 4 Causing Fedex System Crash?

Anything more frustrating anticipating an $AAPL iPhone to be delivered and then the Fedex systems go down?

I haven't ordered the ne iPhone yet. But I want to!

"Just as Apple fans were at their jitteriest about the impending delivery of their iPhone 4s, FedEx's online tracking system crashed Wednesday afternoon.

http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_mostpopular/~3/2vPEHxPuKHQ/index.htm

Pardon the blogging format lately. I've been testing various mobile blogging solutions. (amplify, posterous, blogpress, etc).

BP Magazine: Bright Side to Oil Spill!

Seriously, BP Magazine says lets take that gulf oil spill and make lemonade!

Last weekend, Tony Hayward left for a yacht outing two days after a very public crucifixion on Capitol Hill. So was this a sign that he is a born optimist, convinced things can only get better — or simply an admission that he might as well enjoy himself for a couple of days given he’s likely to lose his job over the oil spill disaster in any case?

Retaining an upbeat tone, in an email to staff last Friday, Hayward again pledged to “get [BP] through the immediate crisis as a stronger and safer company.”

Really.

via Writerous

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UK: 77% Spending Cuts, 23% Tax Increases

clipped from www.wallstreetjournal.com U.K. Government Delivers 'Unavoidable' Budget Britain's new government set out what it dubbed the "unavoidable budget" as it sought to cut one of the worst deficits in the world with billions of pounds worth of cuts and tax rises that will hit everybody from public-sector workers to banks, welfare recipients and videogame makers. The budget represented a concerted attempt to whittle down the size of the state, whose blueprint could encourage other large economies across Europe to lower deficits by chipping away with government cuts. In his first budget, Treasury chief George Osborne said his fiscal consolidation will eliminate the structural current deficit and ensure the U.K's debt burden is falling as a percentage of gross domestic product by the 2014-2015 financial year. Mr. Osborne, the youngest Treasury chief in more than a century, said 77% of the fiscal consolidation will come through spending cuts, with the rest delivered through tax increases.

Here are the details on how the UK is dealing with their economic crisis and public debt. I suppose we've always thought that we should increase government spending and run deficits during tough economic times. But, we've been increasing government spending and running bigger and bigger deficits through good times and bad times. Hardly Keynesian, eh?

Home Sales Slip Surpises

Economists off just a tad on home sales estimates. $$ They expected a 5% increase but there was a 2.2% decrease. The stock market rally off the lows has taken place with not much great economic news. Maybe this won't phase it, or maybe this is what the double-dippers are looking for as a catalyst to renew selling. http://bit.ly/d16pNI

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E-Readers React to iPad

clipped from www.wallstreetjournal.com Price Cuts Electrify E-Reader Market Two of the leading makers of electronic-book readers, threatened by the success of Apple Inc.'s iPad, slashed prices Monday in a move that could further drive e-readers into the mainstream. Early Monday, Barnes & Noble Inc. cut the price of its Nook e-reader to $199 and introduced a Wi-Fi-only model for $149. Hours later, Amazon.com Inc. lowered the price of its Kindle e-reader to $189. Both the Nook and Kindle previously sold for $259. While that was well below the iPad's starting price of $499, the e-readers lack the hit Apple product's color screen, ability to display video and websites, and thousands of specialized applications, or apps.

I've been using the $AAPL iPad to read books. It's heavy. But who wants to spend the cash on something lighter? Now, the other e-book readers are coming down in price making them an intriguing option.

(For those of us who can never have enough technology...)

Fiscal Policy: US vs. Europe

t feels strange to write that the US wants to stimulate via government spending, while Europe wants to become more fiscally conservative and reduce government debt.

The U.S. plans to press its economic partners at a summit to move cautiously with plans to tighten their fiscal policies while the global economic recovery remains uncertain, for fear of producing a "Hoover moment."
President Barack Obama, worried the fragile world economy could slip back into recession—as it did in the 1930s during the Hoover administration— plans to urge his counterparts at this weekend's Group of 20 meeting to continue some level of stimulative spending, among other policies, as a way of sustaining economic growth. But at precisely the same time, politicians around the world are starting to embrace a newfound desire for fiscal austerity.
European leaders are more cautious about spending, chastened by the example of Greece, where investor confidence was shattered by mounting debt and the possibility of a default, prompting a nearly $1 trillion rescue fund.
Link to WSJ

So, is it  just me or do things seem backwards?

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Lost - In a Nutshell

This blog kept me entertained during the final season of Lost.  Maybe more than the show itself (-nah).  Here is an answer to a Q&A that made me laugh today, on the first day of Summer.  This blogger had not watched any seasons of Lost prior to the last season.

Q: It could be funny to read what you think the other seasons might have been like (plot points etc).

A: Full disclosure, I had watched the above video about unanswered questions and since watching the finale had found out that they left and came back.  This is pretty similar to my answer when first asked a while ago though.

• Season 1: They crash. It's about being stranded and making friends. They most likely start pairing up into boyfriend/girlfriend couples a la Saved by the Bell.
• Season 2: Crazy stuff is going on on the island.  They're all like "whaaaaaaa?"
• Season 3: Crazy stuff reaches a peak and they all think "we need to get out of here" because they are in danger from the Sad Day Monster and other crashed people. Ends with them leaving the island.
• Season 4: They're off the island.  They feel weird without the island in their lives.  They probably realized that they left a remote tropical island full of supplies to go back to working full time jobs and it was a poor choice.
• Season 5: They go back to the island to set up the final conflict.  We opened the last season with Team Jacob and Team Jack, this was when they were formed. Also, they decided to set off a nuke.
• Season 6: The end.

Never Seen Lost

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Time to Bet Against $APPL?

Anyone want to sell or short $AAPL? I agree that the stock is over loved and over owned. I remember in the 1990's that we had similar stocks that were very much loved. It didn't turn out well for most of them. I don't own Apple and I'm not betting against the company. I'm in love with their iPhone and iPad as much as the next geek. But the fact is technology changes. And when there is something else that becomes the must-have tech investors will over own that and sell Apple. JMHO http://bit.ly/duaUSz

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Sunday Thoughts

The US futures and global markets excited (as I type) about the news on the Chinese yuan. $$


I did say as I type, only because these kinds of things have a way of fooling you, much like a crossover dribble.

Looks like the summer rally is under way. I still think we will likely retest the lows of this recent correction later.

***

Went to Orange County this past week to see the niece graduate from high school. Hard to imagine time passing so fast. Congrats to her and all those going to the next level.

I also had the fortunate luck to watch the last game of the NBA Finals at a Lakers party. Not often I get to watch games with fellow Lakers fans, and that was the one to watch.

Back in Sac tonight.

Apple iPhone 4 Sells Better Than Hotcakes

You snooze you lose!  $APPL iPhone 4 sales were hectic on day 1 for the June 24^th ship date.  Missed it?  Now you’re looking at the middle of July before you can feast your eyes on the “retinal display!”    

 

 

Last night, Apple sold out of iPhone 4’s with a June 24 delivery date and pushed back all orders to July 2. Now those orders have sold out and the new shipping date is July 14.

It’s no question that the iPhone 4 is a huge hit this year, more so than previous years. We learned earlier that 600,000 iPhone 4 orders were placed yesterday.

from Tipb

Darn, I was hoping to get one before the Summer trip (to somewhere)!

 

Good news for all that excitement and anticipation built into the share price of Apple stock.

 

(Disclosure: Sold all my $APPL when I thought Steve Jobs was dead).

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Free Drink Coupons Randomosity

• What's next, free drink coupons with every trade? $$ Schwab cutting fees on some of their ETFs. Heck, they already let you trade them with no trading commissions.




• Sprint to suspend accounts for excessive mobile data use? Seems to me this is the trend for mobile data usage. Fees, fees, fees.
• Eh, don't need your (Sprint, ATT) stinkin' 3G. Or 4G, Sprint. Starbucks to offer free wi-fi. And with a Starbucks on every corner, you should always get strong wi-fi signals no matter where you are in the country.
• Greece downgraded to junk. LOL. Hey, and the market didn't go splat.
• So, everyone is trying to guess when the housing and real estate market will turn around. When incomes go up. Real median household incomes are almost certain to end the decade lower than where they started, reversing the trend of upward momentum of the previous thirty years, the report noted. Therefore, an increase in mortgage rates or a rise in home prices will crimp affordability. "If their incomes do not bounce back quickly, Americans will have to choose whether to cut back on the size and features of their homes or allocate larger shares of their incomes to housing," the report concluded.
• By the way, any movie that features Jessica Biel is probably one I'm going to see. Even if it's the A Team. But maybe I'll wait for the DVD. Also a good way to watch any movie that features Jessica Biel.
  

Wealthy Are Spending

The wealthy are doing the spending in this economy.  Of course they are, they are the ones with the money! $$

This may actually be good news.  Look at how the lower and middle income folks are basically maintaining their spending, as the rich spending increases.  This seems to indicate that these folks aren’t cutting back in this environment.  I’m thinking that the increase in spending by the wealthy will result in more jobs for folks who are not wealthy, increasing employment and eventually resulting in increasing wages.

***

The World Cup soccer event isn’t that big of a sporting event for me. I’m more of an American Football kind of guy.  I may try to get through the US vs. England game tomorrow, just to give it a chance.

As a kid, the worst few weeks for me was when we had to play soccer.  I wanted to extend the flag football weeks a few more.  Or softball.  Or anything. 

CNBC is giving some air time to the event this morning.  There doesn’t seem to be much hope for the USA team.  LOL

Worried about Deflation?

The buzzword these days is deflation.  Everyone is worried.

I’m more worried about inflation.  But I have an idea here in the US to stop falling prices.  At least in real estate. Let Steve Jobs have Apple build homes.  The iHouse.  It would sell at about 150% of the price of better and more advanced homes, but everyone would stand in line for iHouses. There would be a cool factor in owning an iHouse that no one would understand until they themselves bought one.

***

I can’t get the song She Wolf by Shakira out of my head.  It just plays over and over.  Please stop.

Cash is King on Wall Street

Is there any wonder why Wall Street makes the perfect villain in an election year? $$

Yes, I understand that there are uncertainties with the economy, future taxes, and national health care costs.  Who can blame a company for taking a wait and see attitude?

***

The TV show Lie to Me is making a Summer run.  Another chance to see Monica Raymund.

BP

Still thinking about buying $BP? Now comes the pondering of a dividend cut.

 

Lets see.  A potential dividend cut.  Or the US taking legal action to stop BP from paying dividends.  Bankruptcy?

Yes, we’re supposed to buy stocks when nobody wants ‘em.  But maybe when the US government is seeking retribution and lawyering up, maybe not.

2007: Jim Cramer on Subprime Loans

2007: Jim Cramer on subprime loans. Nice. $$

Link sent from a friend, and I realize that this video may be viral out there.

Bernanke Puzzled

In a major confidence builder, Ben Bernanke says he's puzzled by the gold rally.


At least he's honest about it. He could have made stuff up or mentioned Iran, North Korea and surging global deficits. He could have done the popular blaming of George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Haliburton. And it never hurts to blame global warming or climate change, either.

Nope. He's puzzled.

NY Times and Pulse for iPad

I thought that the New York Times forcing $AAPL to pull the Pulse newsreader from the app store was hillarious.


Maybe Pulse comes with some default RSS feeds for the NY Times. But pretty easy to add to any other reader.

Hello Newsrack. Hello Mobile RSS Pro.

The NY Times has a great business section, IMHO.

Tuesday at the Polls

• The stock market held resistance today.  So will we see a Summer rally next?
• Should one buy $BP?  They say buy when news looks dismal, and this is dismal.  Who knows where the liability cap will go on the gulf spill. Who knows if or when they will ever be able to shut it down.  There is too much unknown out there for me to even think about buying any shares.

• Where do things stand?  Nobody really knows.
• It’s voting Tuesday for many of us, so any Summer TV plans you have maybe be sidelined for those exciting election results. 
• In more exciting news, #1 draft pick Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut tonight  Holy cow! Nats manager Jim Riggleman said before the game he was going to be an unpopular guy because he'd have to take Strasburg out of the game. Well, after he struck out the side in the 7th, after his 14th strikeout and seventh-consecutive K, Strasburg was at 94 pitches, four over his limit. Looks like he's done, but we'll see.The crowd went nuts after the seventh. Strasburg has also struck out everyone in the Pittsburgh lineup at least once.

Bonds, Balloons, and Scarlett Johansson

Lots of folks writing and talking about the “bond-fund balloon.”  $$  However, I look around and see very high unemployment, no pressure for wage growth, and declining asset prices in houses and assets.  The latter likely due to no wage growth and high unemployment.  Oh, and don’t forget tighter credit. So where are we supposed to see inflation?

Sure, I understand that we’ve had over a 25-year period of declining interest rates and rising bond prices.  All trends eventually end, and we’re near the bottom on interest rates. 

On the other hand, we have companies still firing and not hiring.  Public sector jobs are seeing layoffs, wage freezes, and furloughs.  Those in the public and private sector will soon be asked to chip in for pensions and health care.

Who has extra money to spend and drive up the price of anything?

**

Picture is of Scarlett Johansson from Iron Man 2.  Not the best movie ever made, but somewhat watchable.  And Scarlett helps!  As Tony Stark says in the movie, “I want one of those.” 

Technorati Tags: Inflation,Scarlett Johansson,Iron Man 2

Market Selloff Reason du Jour

It's the economic data causing stocks to crater today. $$

Call it a potential IBD whipsaw for those who bought late Wednesday or Thursday, which is the major reason I don't follow Investors Business Daily, except for fun.

So what do they do now? Hold and hope.

Friday Randomosity (and Naya Rivera!)

• Wednesday was an IBD follow through day, even though volume looked a little light.  $$  Also had the benefit of 401(k) adds for those who get paid around the first of the month.  Although, who knows if that’s a major influence.  Maybe on lighter-volume days.
• I don’t think the correction is over, but I don’t think we’ll see too much more decline. I think we could just see some meandering around for the Summer, with a few rally attempts before making a final low.
• I’m actually adding a bit back in this morning on the negative reaction to the jobs numbers.
• Most of the new jobs today were from the temporary census worker hires.  Not much going on in the private sector.
• Looks like the latest oil spill strategy is working in the Gulf.  BP Plc.'s containment cap over its stricken Gulf of Mexico well is collecting about 1,000 barrels per day, the top U.S. official overseeing the cleanup effort said on Friday.  A top BP (BP.L) (BP.N) executive overseeing containment efforts told CNN earlier that as that collection rate increases, it could corral "90-plus percent" of the oil.  Good news!  Still have a ton of muck down there, but not making things worse is the first step.
• Pros and cons over ATT’s new data pricing plans.  Here’s the new plan:

If you haven't heard, AT&T will offer new iPhone users a choice of data plans starting Monday, June 7. New users will have to decide between a 200MB plan for $15/month or 2GB for $25. Any data usage above those limits will incur overage charges that have the potential to double your monthly data fees for the iPhone. Current iPhone user can keep their current unlimited plan or switch to a cheaper tiered data plan.

• Gee, a new data plan at the same time a new iPhone HD (or 4G or whatever) is about to be released.  I bet there are a lot of overage charges in customers futures.  Streaming video, music and iChat will chew up a lot of bytes.  And just think if the iTunes music goes into the cloud, ie no local storage on the device.  Then every time you play music, you’re using bandwidth.  Hmm, maybe I should buy some T stock…
• Pictures? Naya Rivera from Glee, who plays Santana Lopez.  (She’s 23.  It’s okay).  There is a Maxim spread.  There is a Glee Wiki for Santana Lopez, believe it or not.  Santana Lopez is a competitive member of the Cheerios. She's snarky, rude, and seems to have a soft spot for both the glee club and her team mate Brittany. Santana is also rumoured to be bisexual - in the 13th episode it is implied via Brittany's slip up that she and Brittany have had sex.
• Naya is on Twitter. Lots of twitpics and Glee goings-ons.  For those interested.

Minor League Wednesday

• The stock market seems to be retracing some of the recent losses. I don't think the correction is over.
• Seems like the ideas for stopping the oil leak are getting worse. I hope this one works but it seems like they're reaching. Maybe the relief well in august is the reality but we are all hoping for a miracle.
• A huge blown call today in baseball costs a perfect game. We need instant replay for all sports.
• Took a long lunch today and went and watched most of a minor league baseball game between the Tacoma Raniers and the Sacramento Rivercats. I went back to work praying that no one would notice that I was a bit sunburned and covered in peanut shells...