Monday, December 26, 2005

Sushi Fest Monday

Not so crazy about the sushi fest, Muck ol' pal.

 
  • So, it's the day after.  Take those decorations down yet?

  • The market?  Doesn't seem to be moving much today.  OH!  IT'S CLOSED!  Well, lets see if Santa left a rally under the tree.

  • The the loyal opposition are saying how horrible the economy is, and many financial analysts are calling for a 2006 recession and/or stock crash.  Someone commented that "everything looks bright" at the end of the bull market.  But only if people recognize it.  Remember in 2000 how euphoric people were?  Even if the economic data is currently showing "moderate growth," people don't seem to recognize it.  This isn't the "wildly bullish" kind of sentiment we normally see at market tops.

  • I'm heading to a make yer own sushi feed in a little bit.  Should be fun.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Christmas Eve's Quick Hits


 
  • Well, the fantasy football bowl continues...  I'm rooting against Rod Smith right now.  I have Mike Anderson going, who just went out with an ankle twist.  DRAT!

  • Over at the Indepundit,  the topic of Class Warfare is discussed.  Not the kind you think, but between private sector vs. public sector workers.  While the private sector is seeing employees face wage and benefit cuts, no such challenges face the public sector.

  • President Bush pardons two Moonshiners.

  • You've heard of Pimp My Ride?  How about Pimp my iPod?  Check out this fuzzy iPod cover called the Fluffpod!

  • It is the season for lists, and how about this one, The Top Reality Whores of 2005 from Reality Blurred!  The only story I'm familiar with there is Corey Clark...

  • The Actor's Studio interviews Jared from Subway.  Very funny bit from Wuzzadem.  It does not make me want to see Brokeback Mountain...

  • Kim Novak, on 100 Things About Women.  Of course, do real men even pay attention to these sorts of lists?  Hah!

  • Ugh.  It's going to be close in the Fantasy Football Bowl.  I was hoping to run away with it.

  • Market Week on gold, the little yellow God.  I agree, the herd is chasing this one right now.

From me and my cartoon friends, I'd like to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas!

Saturday's Views on the News

DOW's Gain Down to the Wire.  In the final week of 2005, the U.S. stock market will be banking on last-minute investments in retirement accounts and other equity funds, with traders hoping the infusion will help the Dow end the year in positive territory.

  • Just using our thinking caps here, we'll have a lighter-than-normal volume week next week, 401(k) contributions will hit late in the week, and then there are the unofficial month-end/quarter-end/year-end shennanigans by the Big Investors to jack up their performance numbers.  I know most folks are expecting 2006 to be the Return of the Bear Market, but maybe we'll see a nice bump this coming week.

Man Rescues Dog Frozen to Railroad Tracks.  He's missing a lot of hair, but a Siberian husky has a new name and a new life, thanks to a construction worker and police officer who rescued him from a railroad track minutes before a train arrived.
  • I saw this story on CNN, and I have to wonder how would a dog get frozen to railroad tracks?  I think the rescue story is great, but I'm wondering if the dog did it on a dare from some other dogs.  Kind of like kids urging one another to stick their tongue on a lamp post.  The dog was taken to the Chippewa County Humane Association, where workers named him "Ice Train."

Economy Stays in the Game.  Think of a boxer who takes wallop after wallop but won't stay down. That's the resilient U.S. economy. As we begin the 50th month of economic growth this new year, not too much has changed. You can expect 3% growth in 2006 to follow the 3.6% of 2005.
  • So, more of the same.  This is the kind of growth that really will frustrate the bears.  They'll get enough news and fear to suspect a bear market is around the corner, but the slow moderate growth will be good for the stock market.  It looks to be another not too hot and not too cold economy.

I only  fancy my girlfriend after a few drinksAfter several years, I recently noted that I only really fancy my girlfriend after I’ve had a few drinks. Is this relationship worth pursuing?
  • You know, I only fancy other people's girlfriends after a few drinks, too.  The Economist answers This Christmas, thousands of couples like you and your girlfriend will rediscover each other with the help of the Yuletide brandy.  HO HO HO!

Fantasy Football Superbowl!

  • Kind of tough to head out last-minute gift shopping with the Fantasy Football championship on the line.

  • The Bill Cara Rules for successful investing. Take risks, not chances! I think chances are best left to the casino. (How does that work out?)

  • I started Santana Moss today. That's working out nicely.

  • Federal Reserve Chairman George Costanza from Barry Ritholz. Should Ben Bernanke just do the opposite?

  • Have you tried those BBQ Kettle Chips?

  • A market comment on Christmas Eve? I think the market is going higher. Despite this comment about an inverted yield curve and that the market tanks when there is nothing but good news, I don't think he's right. The typical way to measure the yield curve is the 3 month and the 30 year. Plus, the perception is that the economy is horrible and that we're sliding into a recession. That's not the kind of euphoria we see at market tops. Remember 2000, when everybody was bullish about the New Economy? That's not the case now.

  • Investors believe in Santa Claus Rally, from CBS Marketwatch.

  • Uh oh, laptop batteries are waning.

  • My goodness I miss Seinfeld!

Friday, December 23, 2005

Friday's (More) Quick Hits

I bet I can beat the traffic home, Muck!

 
  • Why not do another blog entry?  The Fun Factory is not releasing us early today.  I've just made it through a banana and a sampler box of Whitman's chocolates.  Eh, life is good!

  • The market?  It barely budged today.  I did get a chance to listen to Cramer's podcast while I was out at lunch.  He really likes Altria.  He was saying 60% of China's male population smokes.  OK, well my take is that on one end, we can invest in cigarettes.  And on the other end, Big Pharma companies with cancer treatments in their pipelines.  I don't directly own any of the above.  Yet. 

  • The housing market has indeed cooled off.  One of my coworkers who recently started speculating is getting a bit nervous.  He's underwater a little now, and he has been letting his house sit vacant.  He thought he'd be in and out so fast, he didn't need to bother with a renter because the monthly expenses wouldn't amount to much compared to the HUGE real estate profits.  Well, now he's just hoping it goes up enough so that he can dump it to break even.  (Gee, sounds a lot like Cisco shareholders from 2000).

  • Hey, I wonder if Gold investors today will experience that sort of thiing?  Just wondering out loud.

  • The Whitman's sampler was a coworker gift.  It had one dark chocolate over coconut, one chocolate covered caramel, one pure chocolate, and something with a chocolate cream inside.

  • Whoa!  Jason says the neutral signal is on!  Hurry up and.... well... and.... uh... hmm.  Hey, I like Jason and am a daily reader.  And on a stock day like today, his neutral signal seemed to be right on the money!

  • Have you had chocolate chip cookies from The Chippery?  Oh.  My.  Goodness.  A coworker here at the Fun Factory has a kid who was doing a fundraiser, and selling these tubs of frozen cookie dough..   Awesome.   Just awesome.  They make outstanding cookies.

  • Ticker Sense has some interesting charts up regarding US Strategists' Historical Recommended Asset Allocations.  Looks like they have a little room to chase stocks higher, but check out the late 90's rush to hop on the mania bandwagon!  Same thing with the bond rally.  That silly crowd mentality again.

  • I think have to do a little more shopping, but I'm in the Fantasy Football championship game this weekend.  This league does it a week early because they're trying to avoid teams resting players. 

  • Well, I've hit too many roadblocks today.  No, not like the Amazing Race kind, you silly reality TV show fan!  Plus, I'm out of Whitman's samplers.  I do have an unopened box of See's here, but then what would I munch on next week?

Friday's Views on the News

Immigrants find opportunity in ruined New Orleans. While New Orleans residents are slow to return, the immigrants, most of them illegally in the United States, have swarmed in to do the hard work of cleaning up and rebuilding that others so far have shunned.

==> This is the kind of thing that makes me say “Hmm?” Many of the people affected by the damage in New Orleans were poor and unemployed people. People who are on Federal assistance. Why aren’t they working and helping New Orleans recover? I understand that some may have some disabilities, but certainly some of those folks who were complaining the loudest should be able to find employment down there.

Gold continues strong demand. Analysts remain bullish on the metal, which has gained about 12% this year amid physical demand from India and China, central-bank buying and inflation fears.

==> Gold has remained a poor “buy and hold” investment. In the early 1980’s gold was over $800 an ounce, and now it’s just over $500 an ounce. It didn’t pay any dividends along the way, either. No growth. No dividends. No thanks. The catalyst for gold would be rampant inflation. The core rate of inflation is around .2% in the most recent report, or under 3% annually. Energy and food prices are volatile, and are excluded from the core rate. If folks are expecting a 2006 recession, that wouldn’t be a catalyst for inflation, either. Again, no thanks! It’s worked out as a trade, so congratulations to those who got in near the bottom. That was exactly the opposite folks were doing, though. Remember countries trying to unload their gold reserves a few years ago with the metal in the $200s? File another one under “Crowd mentality!”

Why doesn’t the public realize how strong the economy is? How do we know the media has poisoned the public's view of the economy? It's really very simple. Opinion polls show basically that people believe overwhelming that they're doing well financially but the country isn't. And they know for sure their own economic condition. They experience it personally on a daily basis. On the other hand, what they know about the broader national economy comes largely from the media.

==> Surprised? Me neither. I often hear some of my left-leaning friends claim how bad the economy is. Oh, not for them. They’re doing fine. Just bought a new SUV and upgraded to a larger home. But everybody else is doing bad. Sure. File this under “Can’t see the forest through the trees.” I’m not saying that there aren’t folks who are struggling. There always have been. My friends will often say how great things were before George Bush took over, but remember Al Gore campaigning about folks who are making decisions between eating and prescriptions back in 2000? I think there are always poor people who are struggling, and we do have programs available to help them. But the vast majority of folks are doing not only fine, but better than fine.

Investing Hip Hop


 
  • I wonder how many folks got whiplashed on Albertson's stock?  Ouch!  Talk about a lump of coal in your Christmas stocking.  Heck, that might be a lump of something else.

  • Michigan sentiment up.  That's consumer sentiment; although, I'm sure their fired up over their Wolverines.  It is Bowl Season after all.

  • The Death of Bling?  Barry Ritholz discusses it over at The Big Picture.  You know, it's kind of funny how fashionable words evolve in this society.  Lately, much of the hip words come from the hip-hop community.  Whether Snoop or Eminem or whoever.  By the time 40-yr olds are catch wind of the popular slang, the trend is about over.  It's too late.  Maybe it's a lot like investing that way. 

  • How is Investing like Hip Hop slang?  By the time the crowd catches on, the trend is over!  Maybe Steven Levitt needs to put a chapter in Freakonomics II about it.

  • Albertsons has some nice new stores, though.  In Las Vegas, that CVS pharmacy on the strip sure was crowded.  Heck, I went there to pick up a few things.

  • The Fun Factory is over half vacant today.  Those who are here, are milling around eating pastries and holiday snacks.  Except for me.  Although I did manage to get a few candy canes and some chocolate Santas befure I hunkered down.

  • The market?  Heck, pedal to the metal.  Might as well hope for a Santa Claus rally.  It's tempting to cash in some gains from the October move. 

  • Emotionally, I'm being swayed by this Bear Argument that next year we're going to crash or have some sort of slowdown/recession.  And maybe there will be some hiccups over the change in the Fed. 

  • Then there's the election year trend which tends to produce a both a big sell-off and a big rally. 

  • Wall of worry.  Pedal to the metal.

  • Lunch today?  I'm thinking about hitting the stores for a longer-than-usual lunch.  Maybe pick up a few things.  Including a sandwich somewhere.  Maybe a toasty Quizno's sub.  How's that sound?

  • Regarding video game stocks?  I think they're in a lull because nobody wants to buy games for their "old" systems, the supplies of the XBOX 360 is limited, and the Sony Playstation 3 isn't out yet.  The first round of games for the XBOX 360 blew, as game makers haven't found that technology sweet spot.  They'll get there.   So, a little weakness in that area might present a good buying opportunity down the road.  Just thinking out loud.

  • Speaking of College Bowl Season, see Navy's wishbone confuse the heck out of Colorado State last night?  Hoo, that was just nasty.  The Rams were totally confused.  It's probably tough not seeing that kind of offense all year, and then face it after a few weeks off.