Friday, October 28, 2005

Scooter Libby and GDP

* GDP came in at 3.8%, and the market seems to like it.

Here's the link on the economic numbers. Snippets:

Growth in the U.S. economy picked up in the third quarter to a 3.8% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Inflation cooled down. Core consumer prices increased at a 1.3% rate in the quarter, the slowest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2003.

The core PCE price index has increased 1.9% over the past year, down from 2.0% growth in the second quarter and the slowest annual increase since the first quarter of 2004.

* How are wages and benefits?

US 3Q Employment Costs. Snippets:

Benefit costs again outpaced wages and salaries, the Labor Department said Friday. Benefit costs between June and September rose 1.3%, while wages and salaries climbed 0.6%.

Employment costs for state and local government workers climbed 1.1% in the third quarter. Wage and salary costs rose 0.7%, with benefit costs moving up 1.7%.

"Compensation costs do not appear to pose a significant threat to the outlook for inflation at this time," said Michelle Girard of RBS Greenwich Capital.

"However, with the unemployment rate around 5% and anecdotal evidence suggesting tightening labor markets and even some signs of wage pressures, the results may not be as benign going forward," she said.

* My notes on the numbers are that benefit costs continue to be the largest growing element in total employee compensation, that inflation is under control, but that a stronger GDP number and a tight labor market could put upward pressure on wages down the road. Watch the jobs numbers! Right now, things are pretty good.

* Things aren't good for for Scooter. Every administration needs a fall guy I suppose. In football, they call that a safety. (Not the defensive back, but a release valve in an offensive play that doesn't work out.) If the QB drops back to pass and receivers are covered, often times the halfback will release from the backfield out in the flat to be the safety. The QB dinks the ball off to avoid the pass rush, and the halfback tries to make something happen.

Now watch, after Scooter faces whatever penalties down the road, he'll end up with a nationally syndicated radio show and be highly compensated for speeches around the country. Either that or he'll be tackled behind the line of scrimmage. We'll have to wait and see.

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