Saturday's Views on the News

==> I downloaded Firefox, and it's pretty quick compared to Internet Explorer. I like the tabbed browsing, and the ability to browse RSS feeds via the browser. (Sorry Bloglines).

Myths About Drilling in ANWR. Congress is currently deciding whether to add ANWR drilling to the defense appropriations bill. Given the continued high oil prices and political turmoil in many oil-producing nations, now might be the best chance to get ANWR done. But it will happen only if the ANWR myths are exposed.

==> We're a nation that runs on oil. Sure, it'd be wonderful if there were viable alternatives at this point. There are definitely some promising technologies we should utilize as much as possible. But the reality is that we need gasoline. We burn a lot of it. And whatever we can produce at home, we can lower our imports from hostile nations. Even if we sell Alaskan oil overseas, the money we'd gain would pay for oil we buy from someplace else. This is a no brainer. We should continue to drill for oil wherever we can, because we need the oil.

Jessica Simpson files for divorce.

==> Ah, c'mon. Did you expect a Hollywood romance to last? I always wonder if the sole purpose of Hollywood hook-ups is to grab the headlines. Somebody needs to get back in the spotlight, how about an affair, baby, or falling in love?

Bush approves Eavesdropping. President Bush said Saturday he has no intention of stopping his personal authorizations of a post-Sept. 11 secret eavesdropping program in the U.S., lashing out at those involved in revealing it while defending it as crucial to preventing future attacks.

==> I haven't checked the Liberal blogs, but my guess is that their panties are in a bunch over this. These folks were the first to Blame Bush for not acting to stop 9/11 based on their conspiracy theories on what he knew and when he knew it. Now that news comes out that Bush is actually trying to learn in advance of potential terrorist plots, the Liberals don't seem to like that, either. C'mon. You can't have it both ways. I don't like the idea of the government spying on people, either. But I don't like the idea of school busses exploding or planes flying into shopping malls. Which do you prefer?

Ashlee Simpson collapses after show. Ashlee Simpson collapsed following a performance in Tokyo and has been hospitalized. The 21-year-old singer on Thursday had just performed her single, "Boyfriend" for MTV Japan, when she told the audience she felt sick and said to them, "I love you guys," Us Weekly reported Friday. She then collapsed in an elevator and was rushed by ambulance to a hospital.

==> Wow.

Baby Boomers could erase longevity gains. A new government study shows deaths from heart disease, cancer and stroke continue to drop, but it also shows that half of Americans ages 55 to 64 -- including the oldest of the baby boomers -- have high blood pressure, and two in five are obese.

==> I think health care is the number one financial issue facing this country. Obesity is an epidemic in this land of plenty, and there are debilitating diseases associated with being overweight. You know the list, I don't have to tell you. Getting Americans more healthy will lessen the burden on our ability to provide health care. How about a New Year's resolution from all Americans that involves some portion control at the dining room table, and a realistic exercising schedule? It's the little things that compound over the days, weeks, month and year that make a long term difference. Hey, it's like investing that way!

Pudgy Penguins get workout to shed pounds. TOKYO, Japan (AP) -- It's wintertime and the king penguins at a zoo in northern Japan are putting on weight. But the keepers there have a solution: exercise.


==> There you go. See? Even penguins are trying to stay fit. Cute lil' buggers. I like the comment about them standing still during the winter months. If we translated that to human behavior, it'd be sitting on the sofa watching American Idol and NFL games. Same thing, not as cute...

Mushy Market

• I have to start off with The Apprentice finale last night.  I have to say that Randall was the easy choice.  But Rebecca was pretty good.  I was wondering if Trump would offer them both a job at the end, and he almost did.  I thought Randall fell down there a little.  On one hand, there can be only one Apprentice, and I understand him wanting all the spoils.  On the otherhand, if there was all that respect and love between Randall and Rebecca, you think he'd have said "Mr. Trump, hire her, too."
• The stock market was mushy all week.  It's almost as if the week didn't happen at all.  Unless you owned ABGX, of course.  That would've been a good week.  I owned it earlier this year, but bailed.  DRAT.  (The "DRAT" is for bailing at a loss.)  But who knows why Amgen bought 'em.  That's the puzzling part.
• It's cold and foggy here.   Welcome to winters in Sacramento.   It'll be like this until a couple weeks after the Super Bowl.  It does clear up after rain storms for a bit.
• Oh, yesterday's comment about the 10 consecutive quarters of GDP growth over 3%?  Turns out, it's not a Rovian lie after all.  Here's the chart!
• Every year, we go through this "War on Christmas" stuff.  Everybody knows it's Christmas.  It is so ingrained in our culture, that we're unlikely to rid ourselves of it.  Couldn't even if we wanted to.
• I think today was it for Howard Stern on free radio.  Now his show is for subscribers only, on satellite radio.  I wonder if droves of followers are hitting the stores buying their satellite receievers?  Or, are they waiting to see what their local AM station puts on in Stern's place?  This is kind of interesting.
• I forgot about the Winter Olympics.  They start in February.   I like 'em.

Thursday's Ramblings

• Oracle's profits fall afterhours.  Uh, they have a nice database and all.  But are these guys a bellweather anymore?


• It's been so hectic and busy here today at the Fun Factory, that my brain is done.  I can't think of anything to blog about.  I just want to go home, tune into the Apprentice finale.  Maybe find a hoops game on somewhere.  Oh, and microwave popcorn.  That sounds good.  Feeling kind of run down. 


• I'm not sure why Chinese actresses are in Memoirs of a Geisha, either.  Ziyi Zhang, though.  Hoo.


• Not only does the Christmas day game of Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers give us Shaq vs Kobe, but also Pat Riley vs. Phil Jackson. 


• The San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans game on January 1 is being called "The Reggie Bush Bowl."  Those teams are the worst of the worst.  Poor Houston, though.  They've been in a few recently up until the closing minutes, and lose.  I'd almost think they're trying to finish last with the way things are going.


• I haven't been to the stores or malls shopping for Christmas.  Did everything online.  I think I'll stop at a Starbucks and get my team some gift cards for the holidays.  That'll be the extent of my "shopping."


• Today's CPI came in below estimates, due to falling energy prices.  Of course, the core rate remained around .2%.  Yeah, I don't think there's much inflation out there.  For more on the CPI, see BlogginWallStreet.  Sure does make those i-bonds and TIPs look like a good deal.
• Is that an ipod in your pants, or are you just happy to see me?  Introducing the i-boxer!  I guess you better hope that nobody asks you if it's an ipod nano in your pants, huh?  "Got the small one, eh?" (This mania must be nearing the end, too.)


• So, I'm long and strong heading into the final 2 weeks of the trading year.  I still think the big players have done whatever they're going to do ahead of the final two weeks.  Maybe that's why this month's options expiration week has been a little dull.  Next two weeks should be a dull tape, and volatility could rule.  I'd think we'd have an upwards bias.  We shall see.  Nothing is carved in stone about holiday trading.  Just thinking out loud.


• Hey, I heard somebody say that we've had 10 consecutive quarters above 3% GDP growth.   The last time we've had such a sustained period of growth was 1986.  That's what they said, anyways.


• With short-term rates moving up, we have ourselves a savings rate war!


• Yeah.  Ziyi Zhang. 


• Tax cuts for Christmas?  Well, I'm not holding my breath on that one, Larry.  It'd be nice to get the AMT resolved.  If we don't extend Bush's tax cuts, then the nation faces a large tax hike down the road.  Now there's the kind of thing that can wreak havoc on a consecutive quarter GDP spurt.


• For another view on bonds and inflation, check out this from Bill Cara. 


• This is a good one.  Demand Side Phenomenon.  A blogger notes the impact to his daily site hit counts when he links in a story about the University of Western Ontario stripper incident.  Yeah, he has links to the video, for those of you interested.  Bwah.

Rolling Out of Here

I can just tell we're going down from here, Muck!

• 'Tis the season for best of this and the worst of that.  Fortune has their list of stocks and funds.  How'd you do?  I'll spill my performance beans at year end.


• Oh, speaking of, I did roll out of my Microsoft and put more into the QQQQ.  Am I a glutton or what?  Despite my Black Box sell signals, I'm ignoring them because Santa Claus is coming to town.  (I've been a good kid, and put "higher market" on my Christmas list.)  Well, seriously, mostly for the reasons listed earlier today.  Not a recommendation, of course.  


• More links?  How about the Negative Nellies over at Angry Bear?  Kash talks about the US running a trade deficit with just about everybody on the planet.  Well, a ton of that is oil.  We love oil.  I don't know what we import from Germany.  Maybe those are tailgaters up in Green Bay grillin' their Brats before the Packers games.  "Ron, just got the parcel from Germany.  Lets grab the barbeque and head to Lambeau Field."


• As if you needed another reason to get up early tomorrow, the CPI data will be released at 8:30am EST.  You can read more preview info about this from Mark Mahorney over at BlogginWallStreet.  That'll be interesting for the markets. 
• Blueprint for Financial Prosperity interviews The Millionaire Blog.  Kind of a religion and finances mix.


• After watching The Amazing Race finale last night, I had a dream that I was in the Amazing Race!  Don't remember much, other than my teammate was up at the finish line urging me to run faster so that we could be #1, and of course I was running really slow (as one normally does in dreams).  The race ended up in tie, so the show went to an audience poll on who should win.  Obviously, my brain can't keep these reality show formats straight.  Must've had American Idol on the mind!


• Just thinking to myself here, but if the Fed is done or near done with rate hikes, how about that Annaly Mortgage?  NLY.  Hmm.  The yield curve is killing them now I think, but is the worst priced in?  More. Research.  Needed.


• I just tried one of those low carb high protein energy bars.  YUCK!   It said it was "Smores flavor."  Yeah, smores from a camping nightmare.  No need to hide your food from the bears in that scenario, either.


• My thoughts on Sirius Satellite Radio?  Well, Howard Stern is popular, but what is his listening demographic?  If folks are listening to him over the open airwaves today, will they pay to listen to him?  And where do folks listen to him, from work?  Can you pick up Sirius Satellite Radio at work?  How are the books at Sirius?  Revenues vs expenditures?  Just thinking to myself on this one.  I don't know.

Quick Hits

• Checked out Jason at The Trend yet?


• More thoughts on the last half of December?  Well, the Big Money folks who are expecting the market to tank after the first of the year have probably already positioned their portfolios.  Why would they wait for lower volume the last two weeks of the year to dump big blocks of shares?  So does this mean that there won't be many sellers out there?  Just thinking out loud.


• I have bundled cable TV and cable internet service.  But the prices are high, and I get blasted almost daily with specials on satellite TV and DSL internet.  These specials normally require a one-year contract commitment.  They have a low initial teaser rates that last up to 6 months, and the TV specials usually include a few free months of premium channels.  Why wouldn't I just switch back and forth year after year between different providers to take advantage of these offers?   (That's what I've been asking myself, anyways).


• So, are the Diebold voting machines plugged in and ready to go for the Iraqi election?  Just curious.


• Folks are saying King Kong will be a mega blockbuster.  I think it will be, but I'm less excited about seeing that than I am The Chronicles of Narnia.  Maybe because I've already seen two versions of King Kong, plus King Kong vs. Godzilla.  I've read the Narnia books, and am looking forward to see the first book on the big screen.


• Even though Halloween is long gone, the leftover candy lasted until about last week.  Now I'm wanting more candy.

More on the Economy

Huh, Barry?

Barry Ritholz on why this isn't a Goldilocks economy.  He thinks so, because of weak jobs creation, Retail Sales, Inflation, GDP, Retail Sales, Bankruptcy, Real Estate, Savings Rates, Yield Curve, Account Balances, etc.

==> I love BR's blog, but I disagree with him on most of these things.  We often hear the Democrats claim that job growth is weak.  But remember, the late 1990's were a once-in-a-generation bubble.  Things were extended.  Wage growth was huge.  Remember when everybody wanted to quit their jobs to be $250/hr web programmers?  Those days are gone, as are the days of bidding wars for employees.  The 2001 recession was relatively mild, and now that we're in an economic expansion, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5%.  Historically, many have cited 5% unemployment as "full employment."  If we're at full employment, can we expect new job growth to exceed population growth?  I doubt it, unless the economy starts to overheat.

Don't get me started on inflation.  Inflation is very mild.   Core rates have barely a pulse.  Notice the "massive" discounting at retail stores for holidays, as they try to move inventory.  Also, did you catch one of the reasons for the weakness in yesterday's retail numbers?  Falling prices at the gas pumps!

While sales were not as strong as some had hoped, much of the weakness was due to a 5.9 percent drop in sales at gasoline stations in November -- a direct result of the decline in gas prices last month and hardly bad news for consumers.

We know GDP is clocking along over 4%, so I'm not sure why BR thinks this demonstrates a weak economy.  The yield curve is pretty flat, but we don't have inversion and the long-term bond shows nothing with regards to inflationary pressures. 

Just some thoughts on BR's comments.  I hope you have his blog feed wrapped up in your news aggregator!  He'll be on Larry Kudlow's CNBC show tonight, so make sure to catch it live or on your Tivo (or Media Center PC)!

If You See Kay

• Got in a little argument with some folks here at the Fun Factory.  They wanted to have a 7:30am meeting.  I balked.  Who has meetings at 7:30am?  Of course, I lost that argument and got my butt in here early for that meeting.
• On The Amazing Race last night, I would've taken a win from anybody but the Florida team.  Got it.  I was kind of pulling for the Bransens, but the Lintzes get an OK from me.  Florida blew it in Montreal.  It was all clicking for them until they had to find the entrance and the flight tickets.  The next series begins in February, and it looks like it's back to couples.  Good thing.  I like that style better than this style.
• The markets?  Well.  Kind of boring for an options expiration week.  We have a couple dull trading weeks ahead of us, and "they" say never short a dull tape.  I'm hearing lots of folks talk about a sell-off in January.   So many, that I wonder if this latest flatness reflects that fear.  The contrarian at me scoffs at "their" crystal balls.  (Of course, I too am seeing lots of internal weakness and sells in my Black Box).
• The meeting originators told me that this was the only time folks were available today.  Huh?  7:30am?  
• If you see Kay, tell her I need her. - April Wine.
• Bill Cara, on blog plagiarism.  This word-for-word lifting of somebody else's comments is wrong, I think. 
• I went into my Outlook calendar, and blocked out all times before 8am, after 4pm, and 11:00-1:00.  Don't schedule a meeting with me when I'm waking up, hungry, or about to leave.
• I do like that financial stocks are strong and chipper.  Somebody wondered about that.   Saying that they really shouldn't be in a rising rates environment.  But what if the stocks are front-running the expectation that rates won't rise much longer?  Just thinking out loud.
• Unfortunately,somebody booked an 11am meeting.  And I'm hungry.  Sigh.  I'll say whatever it takes to end that meeting early.  "Any questions?"  (Greeted by a shaking head, and a growling stomach...)