Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Market Near 5-yr Lows - What Next?

  • The stock market is near 5-year lows. Yikes!  Against this backdrop, market sentiment, as measured by the Volatility Index, remains complacent, suggesting that near-term risk remains to the downside.  Count me as complacent and bullish.  I think all the hell-in-a-handbasket stuff is overplayed.  Stores, restaurants and casinos are very crowded here in Sacramento.  Are we an island of properity or at last making do?  Was the worst a few months ago when gasoline prices were higher?  Somebody chime in.  How do folks appear in your neck of the woods?
  • Yeah, yeah.  Cheryl Burke was voted off the Dancing with the Stars island long ago.  I know.  Julianne and Cody voted off this week.   But Julianne was able to sing her song tonight.
  • From Guru Focus, what is T. Boone Pickens buying?  Valero ($VLO) is one.
  • Howard Lindzon asks "Do you have a gameplan for a fast break below 8000 in the DOW?"  Howard, my gameplan is go to Hooters and start drinking pitchers of beer.  But, I'd do that anyways as it's my standard gameplan 24x7.  Consitancy and patience, Howard.  Don't deviate from the gameplan!
  • But seriously, I remain long the market.  I don't think now is the time to "get defensive."  That would've been great around SP500 1550.  I think the downside for the total market is limited here.  Individual stocks have risk, but a diversified portfolio has probably seem most of the worst of it.
  • *Probably*.  Howard says it best, "This bottom is insanely elusive so far."
  • How much stimulus does falling gas prices provide the economy?  From Econbrowser.  Good column.  I think plenty more than a check in the mail.  And it continues, week after week.  Unlike the one-shot check from Uncle George, Uncle Harry and Aunt Nancy.