Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Wednesday Market Thoughts

  • Yahoo Finance called Tuesday's market a "choppy day of trade," as the market was up 2% and down 2%, before closing with a small gain.  Looking at the internals, blech.  Not that good.  That's a bit troubling as we've had  a couple of big days and things seem to be petering out.  But this is a holiday week and should anticipate volume being light the more the turkey thaws.
  • I believe historically, the day after Thanksgiving is a decent day in the market.  And Thanksgiving is late this year.  When we come back from the weekend, it'll be December.  We'll have those 401(k) contributions piling in.  Assuming folks are still doing that.
  • I remain 100% invested.  Did some tax loss selling last Friday early, and rotated into like-kind things that have behaved well the last three days.
  • I was just thinking that historically, the market averages about 8-12% a year.  Or so.  But the past 10 years the market is flat.  We're taught that in order to plan out a savings goal, to use the "Rule of 72" to figure out how the money will grow over time.  Uh, how many times does 0% go into 72?  Throw those retirement and college savings goals out the window! 
  • Of course, folks are helped by dollar cost averaging in, and buying more shares when prices are low.  In addition, at some point, someday, we'll look back and see that over the long term the market is still sticking to its historically averages and there are some nice double-digit percentage gains in the years ahead to smooth it all out and make those numbers work.
  • Well, my subscription to Telechart expired this week.  It's been my major feed for data the past many years.  I love the service, and have some custom PCFs and such, but it's played a minor roll in developing my "trading systems."  I've mostly used the data as a feed into another tool, Amibroker.  In addition to Telechart data and others, Amibroker also lets  you download free quotes from various places.