Friday, March 27, 2009

TGIF Market Thoughts

  • A little selloff today. The market has had "the biggest 3-week run since 1982" according to CNBC.  That was a good year to go long.
  • We're near the end of month, and cash dollar-cost averaged into mutual funds should help for a bit.  Of course, the market is overbought.  But internals have looked good.  Consider just last week we had two distribution days following the IBD follow-through day the week before.  But the market is moving up even with the negative headlines, which is a good thing.
  • One comment thread I'm hearing is that this is like 2002-3, where we had a bottom in the Fall of 2002 and rallied, then retested in March of 2003.  So the thought is that we're in the midst of that sort of thing again, and that there will be a retest of the previous lows in the months ahead.  Maybe.
  • Overall sentiment still seems somewhat bearish.  But the rally does feel good for those who are long. I imagine it may be frustrating for the bears who have been trying to pick a point to short, and then getting stopped out on rallies (or watching losses mount).