Tonight's opening NFL game is the Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers. The spread opened with Pittsburgh as a 6.5 point favorite, but with Ben Roethlisberger out the spread has narrowed to -1. The over-under for the game is 34.5.
I think Miami is coming in super hyped. I even put some money on them to win the Super Bowl at 20-1. They haven't even had time to gel. How long does it take for a new QB to know instinctively where his WRs are going to be on the field? I like RB Ronnie Brown, but it won't be easy against the Pittsburgh defense. The Miami defense has a great front seven, but their backs struggled to cover opposing wide outs. Some of those wide outs didn't even make opposing teams' rosters! I do love Nick Saban and believe he'll be on these guys to ignore the hype and play ball. Plus, Miami has enough veterans to ignore the Sports Illustrated Super Bowl prediction and get down to business. They also have talent and experience at the key positions, so the offense can mix-and-match plays and keep the Steelers defense guessing.
Pittsburgh at home on opening night in a nationally televised game? The Steelers lost a lot of heart when Bettis retired, and Willie Parker is now the guy who will have to pick up the slack. I think Willie will have a rough time against the Dolphins front seven. Charlie Batch was 2-0 in 2005 starting at QB, and if the linebackers are cheating up against the run he should be able to pick apart the Miami cornerbacks if he has the time against the Dolphins rush. Pittsburgh has a good defense, but will be guessing on what Miami will be coming with on every down. Bill Cowher seems to have lost some of his edge in the off-season. I saw him on an interview and I didn't notice his chin sticking out. He looked like he was on downers or something.
Run defense advantage to Miami. Pass defense advantage to Pittsburgh. Running match-up even. Wide receiver and tight end match-up to Miami. Quarterback match-up to Miami. Coaching advantage... uh, I think Saban is hungrier than Cowher - Miami.
I like the Dolphins at +1.
Go fish.
(Not a recommendation to place real money gambling on sports. I will do this over the season and track the performance, and you will see how futile it is trying to make money against the spread!)