- Sold a bunch of beta near the close today. Raised cash levels. The Black Box is still on the sell signal from Labor Day weekend, even as the market has consolidated and retested. Combine the Black Box signal with the end of options week, and I think the scenario is set for the widely anticipated Sept-Oct pullback (The Swoon Prophecy). Fridays are normally profit taking days, and since this week has been a good one I'd expect some profits to be booked. Two weeks until the end of month strength, so there is time for doubt to sneak in. I think that any pullback here would heighten alarm about The Swoon Prophecy. We all know about self-fulfilling prophecies.
- Thorns in the theory.... It does look like money is rotating from wherever (real estate, commodities, etc) into big caps and tech. The crowd does seem pessimistic and expecting the Sept-Oct swoon. Oil prices are falling, too. Volume is higher on this move up than on the previous high last week, but that was summer and Labor Day, so I'm ignoring volume for this one. Even the President's approval ratings are rising, which normally means folks are more optimistic about their situation and the economy. (Those ratings are still low, however!) Also, despite The Swoon Prophecy, the market held up well during last week's consolidation and has done great this week so far.
- Never a recommendation. I did go under .500 on my sports picks last week after all! Feel free to ridicule me whenever I'm wrong.
- Tucker Carlson is the first eliminated from this year's Dancing with the Stars. Yes, Springer and Hamlin are still alive. The show can only eliminate one at a time, so be patient. Their time will come.
- Yesterday it was near 100 degrees. Got a bike ride and a swim in. Today? 65 degrees. WHAT A CHANGE! Looks like a good night to watch Thursday Night Football on ESPN. West Virginia is a 17.5 point favorite at home playing Maryland. Looks like it opened around 13.5, so there is big bank moving the spread on this. Who cares. If I were at the book, I'd take WV. So this will be my first pigskin pick of the week.
