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I added a comment over at Barry Ritholz's The Big Picture on his entry Why I think Cramer is Wrong about the Consumer. BR comments on Cramer's comment that the Best Buy (BBY) quarter is evidence of the health of the consumer. BR says, I beg to differ. So go read it before continuing...
(tick, tock)
Before my comment, I just want to note that whenever we mention "Cramer" and "Wrong" in the same sentence, shouldn't WRONG! be capitalized and ended with an exclamation mark? Also, as a preface, I'm still long this market despite some of the overtones in the comment. Here's what some anon guy on the web who goes by Muckdog (that's ME!) said on the comment thread (plus a few docu-drama spelling/gramatical fixes):
Cramer always seems a bit late to the move, IMHO.
Retailers are rebounding because energy prices have come down. Why? Maybe the terror premium of Israeli bombs or Iranian nukes has eased, maybe the threat of hurricanes is waning, maybe the economy has slowed, or maybe summer driving season is over.
Some combination of that.
This results in "extra" cash in the consumer's wallets, that they are now spending on retail. Expect SBUX and CAKE to do better now, too. People love to spend money, and now they have more than they did when oil was near $80.
Oh by the way, before we all celebrate and buy stocks that have already been pricing this in, remember that falling energy prices act like a tax cut for the consumer, and will thus stimulate consumer spending and the economy. You-know-who is always on the lookout for inflation, and if the economy is starting to roll again then Wall St might hit "speed bump Bernanke" soon...
Regarding comments that all this spending comes from maxing out credit cards, remember that a growing economy always sees expanding credit. People feel good about the economy, go out and spend cash, credit, and whatever it takes because they have an optimistic outlook for tomorrow.
Just thinking out loud.
Go drop Barry a comment and tell him if you think he's right on, if that Muckdog is full of beans, or whatever.