Monday, November 26, 2007

Market Thoughts

  • That market close was fugly. Pretty much the opposite of what bulls (like myself) want to see. 
  • One of the stocks I've been watching (but not doing anything in) is Citigroup.  In past weeks, it made a new low and then rallied up quite sharply.  Many were worried that they had "missed the bottom," but I thought it more likely to retest the previous low and I was planning on seeing how it reacted once down there a second time.  Down over 3% today.  Now it's at a new low, and the process begins anew. 
  • Others are watching C, too:  Citigroup must be broken up to create value.  My thought is that when we see articles like this, we're near capitulation time on the stock.  But have to keep watching it.
  • The SP500 is 1 point above it's closing low in August!  (You remember August...  Back then, you passed on drafting Tom Brady and Randy Moss in your Fantasy Football league, and instead went with Larry Johnson or Frank Gore.  Oopsie!)
  • So, if we're retesting the August lows, it ought to bounce from here.  Sure doesn't feel like it wants to, eh?  Or maybe we get the capitulation day.  You know, before us on the West Coast have finished our Corn Flakes, the DOW is down 500.  One of those days that sees a massive reversal after the panic.
  • Then there's the Fed.  They meet on December 11th.  The odds are probably 217% in favor of a rate cut. 

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