Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Market and NFL Thoughts

  • The market? Kind of in a lull before the month-end stuff.  The month-end stuff begins tomorrow (thursday) as the paychecks go out and the 401(k) money gets dollar-cost averaged into mutual funds.  But it is also the end of the quarter, and you can see the high-flyers holding up well in the malaise.  Stocks that have been leading (AAPL, LVS, etc) have been moving up this week despite the market flatlining.  In addition, notice how the NDX is continuing to move up.   Of course, decliners are leading advancers, so that's the kind of divergence I don't like to see.  Eventually, that matters.
  • I remain 100% long with beta.  I realize that we're approaching October, which often times has a remarkable selloff and bottom that creates a rally launching pad.  But we'll likely be entering the month with the market near all-time highs.  Not like we had much of an August-September swoon this year.  So, at this point I'm not pushing the sell button.
  • The Fed is in easing mode, and with retail sales taking a hit I can't see inflation problems being anywhere on the radar.  If sales are slowing, how do retailers move merchandise sitting on the shelves?  They have sales!  They cut prices!  Neither of which is a symptom of inflation.  At least, I don't remember that from my economics classes.  I might've cut class that day, though.  Look at what housing companies are doing recently.  "$100,000 off!" 
  • New Orleans Saints RB Deuce McAllister likely out for the year with a torn ACL.  You know, the Saints looked pretty bad out there last night.  What's wrong with Drew Brees?  Is it the offensive line?  And what's with RB Reggie Bush's running style?  Was he doing all that stutter stepping last year?  Just looks wrong out there.  Now he'll be the main guy back there with Deuce out.
  • The St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson out with a groin injury (ouch).  All the Fantasy Footbal vultures picking up backup RB Brian Leonard on the news.  He is going up against the Dallas Cowboys defense, and the Rams haven't looked like an offensive juggernaut this year.
  • Other Fantasy Football RB no shows this year?  LaDanian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Larry Johnson.  

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