Thursday, October 19, 2006

The 2006 Elections

  • The 2006 elections won't have much effect on the market. Actually, the market may prefer gridlock should the Democrats recapture the House.  The market wouldn't like tax hikes.  Bush's tax cuts are set to expire later in the decade unless extended.  I doubt the Democrats would extend the cuts.  But that's still a ways away.  In the meantime, if Speaker Pelosi introduces new taxes, I'm sure President Bush would use the veto pen through 2008.
  • After that, we may have President Rudy Giuliani according to the Marist Poll.
  • Google is on fire afterhours after reporting earnings.  GOOG.  Revenues in the third-quarter nearly double!  Somebody must be clicking on those advertistments on the search page.  'Fess up.  Who is it?  If you click on Google ads, please comment in the comment log.  I'm still suspicious about automated web-bots that click-click-click on ads. 
  • Despite weakness in semiconductors, the market closed up and the DOW finaly crossed and held 12,000.  Get out the DOW 13,000 party hats now, I 'spose.  Will there be a running ticker across CNBC that says "989 points away from DOW 13,000?"
  • I'm a Tyra Banks fan.  I do like the show America's Next Top Model.  And it's not for gawking at skinny supermodel wannabes.  It's a funny show.
  • I don't mean to sound negative or bearish on the market, because I'm not. I am still long the market.  My strategy has been to get aggressive after sell offs and to get conservative after market runs.  I do this by raising beta on weakness and lowering beta (and raising cash) on strength.  It's worked really well, but it can test the patience.   And maybe the market is pricing in government gridlock which worked so well from 1995-2000.  If the federal government is busy investigating each other and too busy to bother with any issues or legislation, then that's usually a good thing as far as the markets are concerned.

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