Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Market Thoughts

  • Just so we understand each other, Amazon (AMZN) reported that profits fell 37%, but the stock is rallying because sales increased 24%. AMZN also narrowed their forecast for the year.  The stock is up 14% afterhours.  More on AMZN at CBSMarketwatch
  • Bull markets.  Gotta love 'em.  Buy the good news.  Buy the bad news.  Buy the lack of news.  Buy.  Buy.  Buy.  I remain long in lower beta holdings, and out of tech and semiland.  Although, I am still short-term trading a few stocks here and there daily but trying to keep some cash on the sidelines.  Been here before.  Corrections will come.  Sideways trading markets will return.   Someday. 
  • Look how icky semis look, though.  One thought out there is that semis lead tech, and tech lead the market.  Sure, the DOW is currently leading but how long does that ever last?
  • The Black Box still says "caution" regarding the market.  Yes, it had sell signals on tech and semis back in September.  The Black Box is an intermediate term set of indicators that may give 2-3 market signals a year.  I've also been working on some shorter-term trading models, but that's a "work in progress" currently.
  • Will a ban on online gambling be effective?  I think it'll slow it down.  Check out what happened to the stocks of those online companies who rely heavily on the US gambler!  YOWCH!
  • Heroes is a great show.  Totally hooked.  Every episode is a cliffhanger, so it is a bit frustrating.  No spoiler for you DVR folks.  Good one, though.

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