Friday, October 01, 2004

Stocks: The John Kerry Rally?

Republicans like to say that the stock market prefers Republicans. Historically, this isn't true. The stock market has averaged higher returns under Democrats. While Republicans have said that the recent lift off the summer lows was due to Bush getting a bounce at the polls after the Republican convention, how will they explain today's huge gain after what is viewed in the media as a Kerry win at the first Presidential debate?

Beginning of the month inflow of 401(k) money?

Kerry's win at the debate was priced in during the recent decline, and today was shorts covering and cashing in after the debate?

Stronger economic data?

I like the latter reason best. The economy has seen some upward revisions to previously released numbers and continues to grow and expand. I largely believe that the stock market cares more about the business cycle than who occupies the White House. And at this point, we all know the Federal Reserve has more influence on that than the President!

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