Black Box Thoughts

One of the frustrating things with the Black Box that I use to time stocks and ETFs, is that it generates intermediate signals. That means that it can go for weeks without giving any signals at all on the ETFs I follow. Patience is the key for me. I don't like to trade individual stocks when we're near the top of the trading range, because they tend to have more "beta" than an ETF. So I passed on GE and C last week when the Black Box said buy, though they would've been good ones. Not that C or GE are high beta stocks, but they will move more than an ETF when we're trending. I like to follow C, GE and MSFT because these are stocks that do well represent their particular sectors. (GE representing the market in general, really!) Some folks don't like MSFT anymore, but it is about 14% of the NDX, so when it trends I think it's a good bet that the NDX will go in the same direction.

I'm not seeing any buy signals on what I follow. QQQQ and MSFT look like they could generate buys at any point, but no need to guess. And sometimes the Black Box just doesn't catch all the gyrations.

I was looking at the oil and energy ETFs, OIH and XLE. No signals yet, but they've been free falling. If they start to consolidate, then I could get some green arrows (buy). Of course, I think folks will be quick to buy into and then sell a bounce in those things.

Just random Black Box thoughts. I remain 100% invested at this time. Rightly or wrongly!

Helicopter Ben Bernanke could throw a wrench into the Black Box tomorrow when he pontificates his views. Should be interesting.