Quick Hits (Stocks, Olympics, TGIF!)

• The market sure has been whippy. Yesterday we went up, then came down. Today we went down, then came up. Pre-options week stuff? One interesting thing to note is that despite the melancholy attitude (aka pessimism) about how horrible the President polls, war with Iraq, threats from Iran, years of natural disasters, mining accidents, political scandals, and high energy costs, the bears can't seem to catch a break. The market remains near the rally highs, and bad news seems to create choppiness at best. I think this sets up a scenario where good news could lead to a big rally. How? What if Helicopter Ben takes the Fed's foot from the brake? Just a thought...


• OK, so it's a day late but if you caught Lost on wednesday night you saw an interesting story line on Sawyer, the con-man. That show has a ton of freedom to go anywhere with those characters. I thought the show started off a little slow but then finished strong.


• I missed all TV on thursday night. HUH? Yeah, I know. But I DVRed the important things. That doesn't include Dancing with the Stars, btw. I'll have to do a Google search to find out what's going on there.


• You know about Fantasy Football, Baseball and Basketball. Now? Fantasy Olympics! That's right! It comes in multiple flavors, including just picking 5 countries from the planet and awarding points on a sliding scale for gold, silver, and bronze medals. For the tie-breaker, each player picks the number of gold medals the US will receive. There you go. Make it interesting!


• If the economy were going into a recession, I ask you why in the heck are semiconductor stocks rallying? These things are cyclical. If a recession was coming, there is no way that they'd be rallying like they are. Remember, stocks predict the economy 6-12 months in advance. The stock market collapse in 2000 predicted the 2001 recession. The 2002 stock bottom and subsequent rally predicted strong GDP growth in the future. So while stocks have mostly been moving sideways since 2004, they have actually been consolidating their gains and letting earnings catch up with valuations. (aka, PE multiples). We could soon see a new leg up in the market if the PE multiple expanded. Just thinking out loud.


• "He's the one they call Dr. Feelgood. He's the one that makes you feel alright!" - Motley Crue.


• How about Wayne Gretzky's wife? Haha.


• One reason the market may have rallied near the end today is shorts cashing in. You know the drill. Fridays tend to move opposite of the weekly trend, as traders book profits before the weekend. And they'll need the cash, because Valentine's Day is coming up quick!


• Nah, I probably won't watch much of the Olympics.


• Netflix flicks... Firefly disc 2 and Transporter 2.


• Time to tune-up the bike. Weather has been in the 70's here this week, and hopefully will hold up for the weekend. Time to gear up for some patella tendinitis! Woohoo!