Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Inverted Yield Curve Links

More on the yield curve inversion...

  • Adam's Options on yield curve inversion.  I found the comment interesting that the yield curve has inverted 4 times since 1982, and the market reacted well in the interim, rallying in the next 6 month's post-inversion in each instance, and rallied 12-month's out in 3/4 occurences.

  • Adam's Options also points out that it's the responsibility of the "it's different this time" crowd to prove that yield curve inversion won't lead to a slowdown or recession.

  • Economist's View on inversion when inflation is low, as it is in our current environment.

  • The Big Picture's Barry Ritholz explains the significance of yield curve inversion, and potential economic and market implications.

  • Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed on Inverted Yield Curve Worries.  Maybe PK has a point on the media hype!  It does seem like this is all folks are talking about right now.

  • Stocks or Bonds on yield curve inversion, daring to sound like "it's different this time!"

  • The Asset Allocator wonders if we're jumping the gun from yesterday's smorgasbord.

  • Bill Cara blogs on the yield curve focus, and contemplates a 2006 recession.  Bill likes the yellow metal!

  • BlogginWallStreet's Mark Mahorney talks about the Inverted Yield Curve Myth:  They are NOT an indicator of recession.  And note his last comment, There's a lot of money to be made off of people misunderstanding the markets. I know of at least one hedge fund operator that likely would have appreciated my letting people go on believing that a yield curve inversion would lead to a recession.  Student body right, and run the counter!  (I'm watching so many bowl games it's ridiculous!)

  • On a quick bloglines refresh, I see Adam's Options has more on the inverted yield curve, linking to subscription based (Yeah, Cramer's site!).  Keep an eye on Adam's blog, as he's running with it today!

Sorry if I missed any out there.  If you know some out there, feel free to add them to the comments and I'll include them later in an update.  This is a MEDIA HEADLINE right now, and lots of folks are out there discussing what the inverted yield curve means, doesn't mean, implications, and non-implications.  Worries.  Fears.  Blood on the street!

It's fun to read and discuss.  And you'll be the hit of the New Year's Eve Party if you've done your research!

In Edit! Here are some additions:

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