Monday, June 05, 2006

Ayatollah Ben

  • Just got back from lunch with minutes before the closing bell, and looks like Bernanke may be worse for the market than Iran. While Iran is threatening to cut off oil supplies, Bernanke is threatening to raise interest rates. Mabye we should change the nickname "Helicopter Ben" to "Ayatollah Ben."  We have found the weapons of mass destruction, and they are "interest rate hikes."  Bernanke said that the Fed would "be vigilant to ensure that the recent pattern of elevated monthly core inflation readings is not sustained."
  • Bernanke and the Fed seemed worried about inflation when consumers are facing higher energy prices and slow wage growth.  Neither of those are inflationary, as folks send more money to OPEC to buy oil instead of spending it here.  With higher interest rates and a housing bubble that has popped, the home equity ATM no longer works, either. 
  • I think the Fed is making a mistake, and could create a recession by overtightening.

  • I'm going to let my beta ride for now (that I bought last week), and I added a little more near the close.  I will run the Black Box tonight and see what today did to last week's buy signal as well as evaluate the market internals.  The market is very skittish.  The bears are on the prowl.  Iran is making threats.  The President's ratings are in the tank.  The new Fed chairman seems to say the wrong things at the wrong times.  
  • But that's hockey.


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